I could lose all respect for saying this, but I’m looking at an UNDER play in the Louisville/ Ole Miss game in Atlanta Monday night. Ole Miss HC Lane Kiffin is out with COVID and Louisville’s Scott Satterfield in just out in the doghouse after getting caught nibbling on the vacant South Carolina job last offseason.
Ole Miss will be one of the highest scoring teams after they were 7th in the nation in passing and 3rd in offense overall last season. That doesn’t help my case for the UNDER, but Athlon Sports put out a stat I can’t stop thinking about. Last year, Ole Miss tied Buffalo for most 2H points in the nation averaging 21 pts/ game after halftime. That tells me Kiffin is one of the best at adjustments but remember, he won’t be there.
Louisville also has the ability to score and the Rebels Defense doesn’t help my under here as they were 126th in total defense last year. The Cardinals’ O-line has some nice size so LOU should be able to move some men and put up some points as well. I expect LOU to come out conservative at first to build some confidence in their QB Malik Cunningham off of a season where he had more turnovers than expected.
Looking at Louisville’s defense, they were 1st in the ACC for pass defense and actually the 39th total defense in the country. Their D-Coordinator Bryan Brown got a raise for their improvement and is now assistant head coach, likely in the running for head coach if Satterfield blows it this year. Tough task in game 1 to try and slow Ole Miss, especially with 3 new starters in the secondary.
The full game total is up to 75-76 after opening 74 1/2, with only 56% of the money on the OVER. I’m not the only one that is looking at the UNDER. When I’m looking for the UNDER, I don’t mind waiting until gameday. The neutral setting helps the under as there shouldn’t be an overwhelming crowd advantage, one way or the other. Full game, this one wouldn’t shock me if it flies OVER. I’m not as down on Satterfield as most this year, so I’m looking for the Cardinals to slow it down and keep it tight in the beginning. The 1H total UNDER the high number of 38 is worth the sweat for me. Could get out of hand so keeping this play small.
LOU/MISS 1H UN 38- 1.1u
