I’ve been watching this line all week and I don’t mind waiting on an Under play. Weird considering 99% of the money is on the OV 64 in this SunBelt v. AAC matchup, right?Although ARK ST is 60th in the nation in scoring OFF, TULSA is 113th. With Tulsa as an over 2 TD favorite (-14.5) I’m looking for Tulsa to control the line of scrimmage.
Tulsa has been more successful on the ground so far this year (147/ ypg) but has a 2:1 Pass/ Rush First Down Ratio largely due to their opening opponents. ARK ST has the same ratio but has been much more successful with the pass, averaging 370/ypg. ARK ST’s defense is better vs the run than the pass. Tulsa is better against the pass than the rush. Both good cases for the under.
ARK ST almost upset Memphis at home two weeks ago, losing 50-55. That high flying MEM/ ARK ST game does scare me, but Tulsa’s bread and butter last year was their defense. Memphis isn’t exactly a defensive juggernaut. Tulsa returned the majority of their 18th ranked Pass Defense from last year, they should only improve off of an Ohio State beat down.
I expect Tulsa to lean on their defensive experience to get them through games while working out the offense. When ARK ST faced a good defense in Washington last week, they were almost shut out- losing 52-3. I don’t expect Tulsa to put up those kind of points and their defense may not be as good, but they’re only allowing 223 pass/ ypg. With 75% of the money on ARK ST to cover the +14.5, I’m looking to hedge the UN 64 with a correlated play on ARK ST in case Tulsa can’t get the separation. I think both could hit in this one.
ARK ST UN 64 (-108) 1.08u / ARK ST +14.5 (-108) 1.08u
