823 Louisiana Tech (-3.5) at 824 UTEP*
Definitely some smelly lines on the huge board today as we are getting into conference play so I am treading lightly in college basketball. I’ll be mostly watching results closely as we figure out the true identity of these teams, because conference play tends to bring different results from the first couple months. Then throw in we’re in the midst of a COVID surge and the uncertainty of rosters on a given night… So I’ll be focusing in on some of the metrics that have given me some modest success thus far in college basketball.
Coming into this matchup, we have a relatively short favorite in LT who has a clear advantage in strength of schedule at 137th vs. UTEP’s 207th. Again, we have a team who has a clear edge in rebounding thus far with LT 97th vs UTEP at 283rd in that category. LT is a better free throw shooting% team, and UTEP also fouls at a significantly higher rate 300th (defensive free throw attempt %) vs LT’s 191st rating. From a metric perspective, we have a Bulldog team that’s faced better competition that should be getting more attempts to score overall. The next metric that I have to consider given I haven’t seen a lot of games between either of these teams is FG%, which asks… Are they getting the ball in the basket when they have possession? Well, LT has an edge in that category at 67th vs UTEP’s 283rd in overall FG%. I have to lay the points with the Bulldogs in this one, who should be one of the better teams in C-USA action this year.
