Kansas wins (-120), 1.2 units: Kansas is the slight favorite here in a tough spot at Oklahoma, but one stat stands out: Kansas has had the far tougher schedule thus far. After facing the monolith that is Baylor, expect Kansas to come out motivated and efficient over a weaker foe.
Ohio State +5 (-110), 1.5 units: Ohio State is in a better spot here after a tough loss against red-hot Purdue (until last night), but are they really that much worse than Wisconsin? This is a pretty even matchup, but the Buckeyes outscore and out-rebound Wisconsin on average; the latter is a huge stat in a big matchup like this. Give me the Buckeyes to keep it close.
Niagara/Quinnipiac over 128.5 (-110), 2 units: These two teams faced off yesterday in a really odd game. They both shot terribly from the field (36.5% and 31.7%) and were disgustingly bad beyond the arc (27% and 21%). Positive regression has to be in store here- I’m on the over, and I lean Quinnipiac to get even in the series.
Purdue Fort Wayne wins (+105), 1 unit: I don’t know these two teams too well, but I know that Green Bay shot probably their best game of the year last night, going 49% from the field and 42% from 3-point land, a full 20% better than Purdue Fort Wayne. Purdue Fort Wayne scores more, allows less, and rebounds more than Green Bay on a game-by-game basis. I think things regress to the norm and Purdue FW pulls out the victory here.
Milwaukee +3.5 (-110), 1 unit: Milwaukee and Cleveland State played yesterday and the game was close throughout. Originally I had Cleveland State winning big again, but how much better are they than Milwaukee? Milwaukee shot below 30%, CSU over 44%, and still CSU only won by 11 points (and the game was close until late into the second half). If the underdog plays even a little better, this has to be a closer game, right? I’ll take a small shot on the dog.
LSU wins (+110), 1.5 units: KenPom ranks Kentucky as playing the much tougher schedule, but I’m not sure if I see it. Why, because they faced Kansas? LSU is the vastly more efficient and effective offense, and I like the Tigers to keep playing aggressive after that big letdown against Alabama. This is a play-on for LSU and a fade on Kentucky at home.
Northwestern +5.5 (-110), 2 units: This is the kind of game Northwestern can get up for and win. Why is Penn State favored? Because they finally won? What would this
line be if they lost? I’m not overly impressed by a win over Rutgers but Penn State may come into this thinking a little too highly of themselves. With the proverbial monkey off the Nittany Lions’ back, Give me Northwestern in a close contest.
