Alcorn State +5 (-110), 1.5 units: What a scintillating battle it will be as two of the worst teams in the country face off when Alcorn State battles Alabama A&M (did you know that Alabama A&M was a college? Be honest). In all seriousness, these are the matchups where a handicapper can find real value. Why? Because the books (and the public) don’t pay as much attention to these weaker conferences and weaker teams. Insert Alcorn State. The consensus in the write-ups I’ve read is that Alabama A&M, who’s undefeated at 4-0 so far, is the right side. Not so fast. Sure, Alcorn State isn’t an impressive team by any means, but their stats are skewed because they’ve faced much better competition: UAB, Liberty, Houston, and ahem, Baylor. For a lowly team like Alcorn State, of course that would drive down their stats. But if you look at how they play against similar opponents (Grambling St., Arkansas Pine-Bluff, MS Valley), their offense is efficient and their defense is solid. Alabama A&M, while they’re 4-0 against sub-average opponents, is no juggernaut or elite team. Therefore, there’s inherent value in Alcorn State. I’ll take the dog and the points.
UVA -6.5 (-115), 1.15 units: Syracuse is a great example of a very solid team that can beat up on weaker opponents and could upset teams in the tournament. The problem is this is a terrible spot for the Orangemen, and UVA is an elite opponent. It’s two days after a big win (they were favored) against VA Tech and the Orangemen’s confidence is probably sky-high. Meanwhile, UVA had to scratch and claw to beat another solid team in GA Tech and squeaked by with a 2 point win. The Cavaliers, who are one of the most well-coached teams in the nation, will clean up some of their sluggish play and should be much more efficient on offense tonight. Well-coached teams improve throughout the season. That doesn’t bode well for a Syracuse team who can get soundly defeated when they face good defenses (Pittsburgh, Rutgers). Remember what UVA did to Clemson? I think that’s what tonight could look like. I’m on the Cavaliers tonight.
Utah State -5.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is a difficult handicap, especially since UNLV has had a considerably tougher schedule thus far (UNLV- 70th, Utah St.- 169th). The difference here is Utah’s State’s defense. Ranked 10th in adjusted defense according to KenPom, the Aggies absolutely stifle teams, especially on the road. The spot is also better for the Aggies, who are coming off a tough double-header against Colorado State and will look to crush an inferior foe. The challenge won’t be as grand against UNLV. I’ll take Utah State for a humble 1 unit.
