Saint Joseph’s +12.5 (-110), 1 unit: I know Saint Joseph’s stinks and I know Richmond can put up points, but Richmond can also have incredible stinkers (St. Bonaventure, Loyola IL, Hofstra?). Despite the win/loss disparity between these two teams, Saint Joe’s has played the tougher schedule and they don’t lose by wide-margin unless they’re facing an elite team like Villanova. The only Richmond win I’m impressed by was against Kentucky, but we know the Wildcats are struggling this year. In short, this is a lot of points for a Richmond team to spot, on the road, in conference play. I’ll take a small shot on Hawks for 1 unit.
Pittsburgh wins (+140), 1 unit: Pittsburgh is in a good spot for an upset here. These two teams are very evenly matched, and the Panthers know this is as good a season as any to take out the Tar Heels. Even better, Pitt is traveling back home after a last second loss to Wake Forest– a game where their opponent shot nearly 50% from beyond the arc– which had to leave them frustrated. That should act as a good wake up call. If Pitt had beaten Wake Forest, I’d like this less, but the spot says opportunity for me. Go Pitt!
Alabama -7 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a square, simple pick for me. I wanted to fade the Crimson Tide, but I just couldn’t find any reason to do it. I think Kentucky may be running into a buzz saw tonight. I like the spot even more since the Wildcats got a big win on Saturday against LSU. Good for them, but this is the last team you’d want to face in a potential let-down spot. Alabama has won 9 straight and they score a whopping 81 ppg. I don’t think Kentucky can keep up. Give me the Tide to cover.
LSU -5 (-115), 2 units: Speaking of LSU, the Tigers left a lot on the floor Saturday when they dropped a game to rival Kentucky. We know Alabama can score, but LSU has been even more impressive, averaging 84 ppg and shooting nearly 50% this season. The Tigers are due for some positive regression, especially on offense. I liked this even if LSU won on Saturday; I like it even more since they lost. LSU is dying for a statement win after 2 straight in-conference losses and an Aggies team that’s ranked 198th in offensive efficiency won’t be able to keep pace.
