I could not have been more wrong with the way the UCLA/Gonzaga game turned out. So many points, OT, a close game, and it took a buzzer-beating rainbow from Jalen Suggs to eke out a win for the Bulldogs. If that doesn’t tell you this is destiny’s team, what will? The Bulldogs of Gonzaga have been dominant for over 4 months now in the world of college hoops and it all nearly came crashing down 2 nights ago against UCLA. Who would have thought that the Bruins, who didn’t even seem like the best team in the PAC-12, would have taken Gonzaga to those depths on Saturday night? Ya just LOVE to see it as a fan of college basketball, March Madness, and just as a fan of sports. What- a- game!
But that only has me liking Gonzaga even more in the finale. I’ve said it throughout this tournament– teams who have been through adversity (Baylor surely had their own) will bode well in the postseason. The stress, the nerves, the pressure– it almost got the best of Gonzaga in the Final Four. Of course it takes more than just poise– exceptional talent, great coaching, and a team that plays fluidly as a unit: that helps, too, and both of these squads are superb in all of those key areas. But wow that Gonzaga went through that test in the Final Four, I expect a more even-keel, Mark Few-like persona for the title game. That’s usually their modus operandi anyway– stoic, confident, effective.
Baylor didn’t have the same test in their last contest. Houston looked like an AAC team in their Final Four matchup against the Bears. Baylor was electric from the field– Houston shot 38%. Baylor was 46% from beyond the arc– Houston only made 31% from distance. More rebounds for Baylor, more assists for Baylor, less turnovers for Baylor– the game was only competitive for the first 5 minutes. Remember, these are college kids. Recent events matter. They’re emotional, reactionary, their brains aren’t fully developed (this is objective science, don’t come at me). For the kids that play for Baylor, the tension that comes with a big moment like this might feel overwhelming especially at first. Gonzaga already felt that intensity 2 days ago. Still, the Bears are so good on both sides of the court and they’re easily the most formidable opponent that Gonzaga has faced. And I think they could still easily cover; I just don’t think they’ll win.
It’s obvious that both Baylor and Gonzaga play even better on offense under pressure. It’s also obvious that teams have to adjust to Gonzaga, not the other way around. UCLA is one of the slowest teams in the country (literally, they’re #341 in tempo out of 357 possible teams on KenPom, that’s SLOW), but look how fast and how effective they had to play to stay with the Bulldogs. A 90 point game for the Bruins? Unheard of until Saturday. UCLA also shot 57.6% from the field and 47% from 3-point land. THAT’S why they contended with the Bulldogs. Baylor doesn’t play fast either at a pace ranking of 201st, but clearly they’ll have to make some adjustments in the finale. The Bears are also 1st on Haslametrics in 3-point percentage vs. the average opponent and, like UCLA, they’re above-average in their mid-range game. They’re also exceptional in near-proximity shooting (like Gonzaga). Rated the #2 offense on KenPom (guess who’s #1), I don’t think Baylor will have any issues scoring points in this contest. And neither will their foe.
In summation, I think this is Gonzaga’s year. I also think this game will bring more fireworks. Two elite teams who have remained the most dominant units in the country throughout the 2021 season; now that’s good drama. Get your popcorn ready!
Pick: Parlay, Gonzaga wins and over 159.5, 1.5 units to win 3.8 units
