874 St. Peter’s vs Rider UN 130*
Low total tonight in this Friday game which has been pulled down from its 131 open. I still like the under in this one as we just saw this matchup land at 109 about a month ago. St. Pete’s has relied on their defense, 76th in the nation in defensive efficiency, to get them into 2nd place in the MAAC. The Peacock’s are 4-8 O/U in conference games and 2-6 O/U at home.
Rider has found some success of late winning 3 in a row, 4 of their L5, so that will keep me off the higher spread in this game. Against higher scoring conference opponents, Rider has definitely trended towards the under. To me, that’s a sign that Rider isn’t sinking as many shots as the market feels they should (339th in overall FG%) and/ or their defense is better than expected. The Broncos come into this one 5-7 O/U in conference games and 3-7 O/U as an away dog.
Neither team is offensively efficient, or likely to get a ton of second chance points with great rebounding. The defenses are what stood out and I expect that again tonight. The market agrees, give me the under!
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