Tarleton State is definitely a surprise team so far this year and a public darling early in the season, much like Dixie State was last year when they made their jump into D-I. We’ve seen this line drop from it’s -3.5 open, and the line moves have been sharp thus far in college basketball, so this is a small play for me. I understand the move as we have a clash of tempo here with the low scoring Texans coming in against a high paced Trailblazer squad, and it’s hard to lay points with the slower team. And Tarleton has yet to beat a higher paced squad.
However, when we look at strength of schedule, the Texans have played far tougher opponents (136th vs 331st). Dixie State does have the better record but we’ve seen the Texans find ways to slow down the likes of Gonzaga and Michigan on the road. When looking at low scoring road favorites, I also look for teams that can get their points at the charity stripe, and the Texans have a clear advantage at 52nd versus the Blazers’ 162nd free throw % rank. This team is disciplined and will not be intimidated on the road. I’m laying with Tarleton coming out with something to prove in their WAC debut!
Check more of my plays out at my Patreon as we have had a great December, overall +13 units!
