GA Tech +4.5 (-105), 1.5 units: The books can’t make their mind up on this line, but I’ll take +4.5 at a lower price. Georgia Tech and Louisville are two teams trending in opposite directions. GA Tech comes off a great showing Saturday, upsetting conference giant Florida State. The Louisville Cardinal, on the other hand, feel like a great fade candidate. Losers of 3 of their last 4, the Cardinal have gone from a superior defensive team, allowing only 38.8% from the field before mid-January, to a team that’s now allowing 45.6% in their last 4 games. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech has been a tough team to beat on the road, their offense is only getting more efficient and ranks higher than Louisville, and they’ve covered 5 of their last 6 outings. This line would be pick-em if it wasn’t for the Louisville spot, but the value is still on the Yellow Jackets. I think this could be a play-on team down the stretch, especially as a dog. I’ll take a shot on Georgia Tech, and may sprinkle a little for the ML win.
Drake -17.5 (-110), 1 unit: Is this me being a little sour after yesterday’s ATS loss? Maybe. The fact that Drake AND the Utah Jazz both broke their ATS streaks when I had their side didn’t amount to my best Sunday, but I have to like this line even more after Drake’s disappointing showing. In no way are the Illinois State Redbirds on the same level, in any regard, of the Drake Bulldogs. I think Drake makes a statement today, after what was very nearly an OT loss and very poor showing Sunday afternoon. This is how you’re taught to bet– take advantage of a better spot and a better number when a team’s motivation should be much greater– God help me.
SE Missouri State +7.5 (-105), 1 unit: Talk about needing help from above, check out this bet on the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks. Writing about the Redbirds and Redhawks in back-to-back articles has to be some kind of sad record, but nonetheless here we are. SEMO takes on Murray State tonight and I just don’t see where these teams are that different. Murray State has absolutely owned the Redhawks in their series matchups, but that only gives the underdog more motivation to play their best basketball… right? The Redhawks have won 2 straight and this is their third straight home game. They looked particularly able on defense lately, allowing only 62 ppg in their last 5 games. Murray State is 0-7 when scoring less than 71 points this year, so if the Redhawks can continue to clamp down, this should be a close contest until the end. I like the dog to make it interesting.
Memphis -9 (-110), 1.5 units: I think the Memphis defense will be too much for UCF in this one. Ranked 4th overall on KenPom and 3rd overall on Barttorvik in adjusted defense, the Memphis Tigers allow under 63 ppg (and have allowed only 60 ppg in their last 5 contests). The UCF Knights are a battle tested team, ranked #7 in adjusted strength of schedule on KenPom. They’re an above-average defensive team, but a very average team on offense. They’re also in a bad spot. After coming off two straight games where they overperformed, they lost a heartbreaker in OT Saturday against conference foe Wichita State, who sits at #2 in the American Athletic. Now they travel to Memphis, who’s coming off 4 days of rest and last lost in a close game to another conference opponent in SMU. UCF relies on 3 point shooting to anchor their offense– a perfect setup for Memphis. Memphis is exceptionally good on 3-point defense, allowing only 28.9% from beyond the arc. They also allow under 87 points per 100 possessions, another top 10 defensive designation. I think the Tigers create some distance in the second and pull away.
Grambling State -24.5 (-115), 1.15 units: The Mississippi State Valley Delta Devils, that’s right that’s a real college basketball team, are getting absolutely blitzed by everyone they face. We’re not entirely sure what’s going on, but the Delta Devils are a winless team out of the Southwestern Athletic Conference and they rank dead last in adjusted offense and defense on KenPom, Barttorvik, and Haslametrics. The point is, this is the worst team in Division 1 basketball. While Grambling State isn’t necessarily a Division 1 or even conference giant, this line indicates the level of disparity between these two teams. According to ESPN, the stout Grambling State defense has held opposing offenses to a field goal percentage of 39.3 percent, the 24th-lowest mark in Division I. Mississippi Valley State has allowed opponents to shoot 51.9 percent through 14 games (ranking the Delta Devils 344th). That sounds like a recipe for a blowout to me. What a crazy line, and maybe even crazier that I’m playing on it.
