I took Friday off from my free NCAAM Picks article and I’m glad I did. Sometimes you need a recharge. Plus, I would have bet on Manhattan +4, UC Davis -9, Illinois -14, and Bellarmine -6.5– all of which would have caused me pain. What a weird week it’s been in college hoops. Strangely, I feel great about this Saturday card. Let’s get it!
Ohio State -6.5 (-110), 2 units: I’ve enjoyed Indiana’s recent run as much as the next guy or gal and I’ve won money off the Hoosiers, but I think this is the end of that dream. Ohio State is the real deal. At a certain point, as a fan or bettor, you just have to appreciate when a team is exceptional. Ohio State is solid in every facet of the game. They’re efficient, well-coached, and they don’t make many mistakes. Winners of 5 straight, Ohio State will handedly take care of business at home. I think by double digits. It’s time for Indiana to take a seat, at least for the moment. They’re overdue.
Florida State -13 (-115), 1.5 units: Wake Forest is a formidable opponent against most teams, but this isn’t most teams. The Seminoles, for my money, are one of the better teams in the nation right now (sans Baylor and Gonzaga, of course). Florida State is getting better as the year goes on. They’re one of the most efficient offenses in the country and they’re almost impossible to stop when they capture offensive rebounds, which they will against an under-sized and less talented Demon Deacons unit. Besides that aberration early in the year where they lost against UCF, Florida State is also dominant on their home court, where they win routinely by margin. Throw all the “they haven’t played in 2 weeks” narratives and other in-conference narratives out. The Seminoles will whoop the far less capable Demon Deacons at high noon, and by plenty more than 13.
Xaiver -3 (-115), 1 unit: Fool me once UConn but you won’t fool me twice. I was all over the Huskies a few days ago in a prime spot against Providence, and boy did they fall hard. Even without James Bouknight, I really thought they’d rise to the occasion as the tournament draws near. Plus they were due for positive regression, or so I thought. Not only did they not rise, they were outplayed the entire game against an average Big East team. Maybe UConn just isn’t very good without their star, and now here comes Xavier. Do you think the Musketeers are motivated for this game? I think they are. This is a big game that could propel Xavier into a solid position as we near March, and maybe this is a little recency bias but I just don’t trust UConn. Give me an above-average Big East unit to knock out the Huskies. P.S. Bouknight is reportedly still out.
Auburn wins (+115), 1 unit: Kentucky is not the same as past years, that much is clear. They’re still favored Saturday, at home, and I get it. The Wildcats still have some above-average talent and it’s a good spot after 4 straight losses to get a win. I don’t think it happens. Auburn is a formidable team with a considerably better offense than Kentucky. They’re certainly more consistent. Although the Wildcats have the better defense, this one could get away from them if they’re not properly motivated. And I’m not sure they will be. The season is slipping away, in fact it probably already has, and Auburn should want this game more. Give me the Tigers to steal one in Lexington.
Iowa -5 (-105), 1.5 units: Okay Iowa, now it’s go time. I know the market and the sharps respect Tom Izzo, but Iowa is the better unit and they have the best player in this game, by far. I don’t love the way McCaffrey coaches, but if Garza can stay out of foul trouble and stay in the game, there’s no reason the Hawkeyes shouldn’t be able to keep a distance from the Spartans. Every sharp and their brother will be on Michigan State in this game, probably because they’re still mad after Penn State covered 4 days ago, but this isn’t the same Michigan State team and Iowa has far more to play for.
Fresno State -4.5 (-110), 2 units: These are two pretty horrible teams, but Fresno State is one of the most consistent teams in the nation. You know what you’ll get from the Bulldogs. I’m an Air Force vet, and even I can admit it doesn’t get much worse than the Falcons. Fresno State won by 6 two nights ago- they’ll win by 10+ Saturday.
Duke -3 (-110), 1.5 units: In past years this would be a 5 unit bet but here’s Duke, only favored by 3 points against (yawn) NC State, and we all have some trepidation. Duke is a flawed team, but they still have plenty of talent, certainly more position by position than NC State. The Wolfpack have a fluid offense and the way they play reminds me of the Tar Heels. We all know that didn’t fare well for the Blue Devils last weekend. However, too often we look at statistics and we assume that a team who has strengths similar to another team will perform or match up the same way against like opponents. Not true. Talent, coaching, and motivation disparity make a huge difference. Duke is a proud unit and they should be very motivated to get off the schneid. Take Duke to cover.
Weber State +1 (-110), 1.5 units: This is an amazing comeback spot for Weber State. They’re the better team and they’re overdue. Check out my article 2 days ago on this very same contest. I can’t imagine the Wildcats blowing this twice.
UNC/UVA over 129.5 (-110), 2 units: This game isn’t staying under 130 points. The Tar Heels are feeling themselves after that underdog win last week against Duke, a game where they throttled the Blue Devils and could not be stopped on offense. UVA’s defense cannot be compared to Duke’s, but the Cavaliers can put up points and keep pace with teams that depend on a fast pace offense to win. The Cavaliers will surely slow this game down, just not enough to keep it under 130 points. This line indicates as much, since nearly ever UVA total is in the mid 120s range. In other words, the books are daring you to take the under by making the total look higher than it is. Don’t do it. North Carolina knows that if they have any chance of winning, they’ll need to push the fast-break and pressure the UVA front court. I think UVA covers, but I think they’ll have to eclipse 70 points to do it. That favors the over.
