Akron -16 (-110), 1 unit: Akron favored by 16 is a little scary, but Northern Illinois has scored exactly 1 win against Mid-Atlantic Conference foes and guess who they beat? You guessed it, the Zips. Before a long layoff, the Huskies somehow mustered a win against Akron back in mid-January. Except for a little blip in the radar against Toledo, Akron has been on a tear since then, winning 8 of their last 9 games by an average margin of 14 points. Most of the MAC isn’t nearly as bad as Northern Illinois, who only has 2 wins all year and ranks near the bottom of the nation in adjusted offense and defense on KenPom, so Akron’s wins weren’t fluky. This is only 1 unit because it is the MAC, which has a tinge of unpredictability, but I like the Zips in a healthy revenge spot to cover.
Lean- Iowa State +11.5 (-110): This line has come down some and I agree with the move, but I can’t take the Cyclones at this smaller number. I still lean Iowa State because, even with all their weaknesses, they’re an experienced team and they’ve covered 7 of their last 9 games at Stillwater. The underdog won’t be intimidated this evening, nor has Oklahoma State shown the prowess or consistency to pull ahead by great margin lately. This is just a lean, but I like the Iowa State side.
UConn -5.5 (-110), 1.5 units: If you’ve followed my picks on UConn the past week, you’ve felt my frustration. The Huskies were in a great position to punk Providence last Wednesday but completely blew the spot. Not having James Bouknight hasn’t helped, but after their performance against Xavier on Saturday it’s tough to blame their woes solely on their star’s absence. It’s unclear if Bouknight plays today, but I don’t think it’ll matter much. Saturday’s win was a huge boost for the Huskies and if nothing else it proved to themselves how tough and effective they can play together. Of course I bet on Xavier in that game, but that’s another agonizing story. With obvious trepidation but confidence from what I saw Saturday, I’ll take UConn to cover a number that should be too shallow in a great revenge spot at home.
Florida +5 (-110), 1 unit: I’ll take a shot on the Gators today as they take on Arkansas in a big SEC contest. The Gators are far from an average team. Averaging 111 points per 100 possessions per Haslametrics, the Gators’ adjusted offense is ranked 18th overall on KenPom. Florida last got bested by South Carolina in a disappointing showing at home 13 days ago, a game where they played far below their average output. The Razorbacks, meanwhile, have squeaked by Missouri and Kentucky in recent battles and are winners of 3 straight. Florida is listed just below Arkansas in the SEC, so this is an important game as they jockey for position before March Madness. Arkansas needs this game a little less and they’ve been flying under-the-radar with unimpressive wins lately; I think they’re due for some negative regression. Give me the Gators to play this close.
Michigan State +5.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Well this is a spot I love for the Spartans. Tom Izzo has made it clear– he’s ready to “fight his tail off for the next eight games.” The long-time Michigan State coach even acknowledged that his streak of making the NCAA Tournament, a ridiculous 22 straight years, is important to him. We knew that, Tom! After a recent blowout loss to Iowa and a near loss to Penn State where they didn’t cover, Michigan State knows it’s time to step up if they want a shot at “Madness.” Purdue is a fantastic team in their own right, but I don’t think the talent disparity between these two teams is that significant. I also like the coaching matchup as an extra angle tonight. Izzo and Purdue coach Matt Painter are tight, and Painter isn’t too shy to admit that he looks up to the Michigan State coach. While the respect is deep, teacher vs. student games only stoke the motivational fire. Last time out, the Boilermakers eked by the Spartans in East Lansing in early January, so this is also a revenge spot for Sparty. Rocket Watts should make his return and brings some structure to the PG position for the underdog, too. 5 points is too much for this Big Ten showdown– take the points with Sparty!
