Wake Forest +5.5 (-110), 1 unit: This feels like a big choke-spot for the Irish. After an impressive win and offensive performance on the road against Pitt, Notre Dame heads back home, surely full of confidence, to take on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. The Demon Deacons are 2nd to last only above Boston College in the ACC. I don’t think Wake is very good, and it’s easy to see why Notre Dame is the favorite. One thing the Deacons are good at is shooting from beyond the arc (ranked in the top 100 in efficiency and top 40 in attempts) and free throw percentage, both factors that could keep them in the game against an Irish defense that Haslametrics ranks dead last in the country in defensive field goal attempt rate vs. the average opponent. That should open a lot of opportunities for Wake Forest to get up more 3s. The Demon Deacons have an opportunity to keep this one close; I think they take advantage.
Maryland -2.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is another spot play for me on Maryland. They’re at home after nearly a week off and just faced a tough loss against a better opponent. Maryland is much better at beating teams that are on par with their talent and depth; insert Purdue. Last time out the Boilermakers squeaked by the Terps, winning 73-70 back on Christmas. Purdue out-rebounded and far out-shot the Terps from beyond the arc at over 45% from 3-point land. I expect some regression to the mean. Maryland needs to start stacking up wins if they want to stay in the mix and this is a good revenge spot, against a very evenly-matched team, to get it done.
Baylor -5.5 (-110), 2 units: My great aunt, who was more like my grandmother growing up, was famous for many sayings. One of my favorites was, “I may be dumb but I’m not stupid.” That’s how I feel tonight betting on Baylor. It may be as square as it gets, but what can I say? I’m not an idiot. I can’t step in front of Baylor here. If you’re wondering how Baylor has fared on the road in big games, look back at the box scores when the Bears faced Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and TCU. You’ll only gain more confidence in Baylor. I think they left their last game a little disappointed– Auburn stayed within distance– and I look for them to rebound in a big way against in-state rival Texas. The Longhorns look like they’re getting back Shaka Smart, which is a big addition, but I don’t think it’ll matter. The best bettors play the number, not just the side. This number is too sweet to pass up.
Iowa -9.5 (-105), 1.5 units: This game sets up really bad for Michigan State. The Hawkeyes are fresh off two very disappointing losses, headed home, and they’re big play, fast-paced offense is going up against the subpar Spartans. What a great spot to get things right. The Spartans aren’t the same since Cassius Winston and others left, and I don’t think they can keep pace with Iowa on either side of the ball tonight. I expect a blowout.
