I had a decent 3-3 day yesterday that won us .5 units. Better than nothing! I’ve said it before and I’ll say it always– use my articles not to blindly follow my picks but to take in the research and draw your own conclusions. If you have a good grasp on your local market team or your favorite conference and you think my analysis is trash, by all means use that to your advantage. These picks are meant to provide information and insight. Let’s start the week strong!
UNC Greensboro -8.5 (-110), 1.5 units: With a little help from others and by stacking wins to end their season, UNC Greensboro still has an outside chance to make the tournament. The Spartans lead the Southern Conference and can’t avoid a slip since Furman is close behind. Today they go on the road, where they’ve had no problem winning, and face lowly Western Carolina. If there was any chance that Greensboro wouldn’t be motivated this line might have a chance to go the Catamounts’ way. The fact is there’s a much better all around team, with a defense that has limited much more impressive offenses, that will travel to Cullowhee, NC today. That doesn’t bode well for Western Carolina. This one should be a blowout and there are no trends to suggest otherwise.
Evansville +11.5 (-110), 1 unit: I think this is a let-down spot for Drake. At 2nd place in the Missouri Valley Conference and cruising to a tournament bid, the Bulldogs take on Evansville for the second straight day, easily defeating the Purple Aces 85-71 in their first contest. But the box score indicates dramatic disparity in yesterday’s game. While Evansville shot a very good 52% from the field, Drake shot a ridiculous 65%! From 3 point land, the Purple Aces shot 23%. Drake?– an insane 52%! Let’s be clear– Evansville has a very subpar defense so it’s not entirely surprising that Drake was able to take advantage. Regardless, that sort of field goal percentage would be above average without any defenders. How much does Drake care about today’s game? I’m not so sure. The Purple Aces are a solid offensive team. If Drake is less motivated, and I think they will be, Evansville should be able to stick around and make this a close contest.
Sam Houston St. -9.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Bearkats are poised to make the NCAA Tournament, traveling to Beaumont, Texas today to take on Lamar. I could’ve sworn Lamar was someone’s name, not a college, but here we are. Back in mid-January, Sam Houston State blew the doors off Lamar. The Cardinals just couldn’t keep up, surrendering 96 points and losing by 25. I get that Lamar is on a 5-game losing streak and back at home, which is arguably a better spot for the underdog, but Sam Houston State plays with a fast tempo and can gain margin quick, winning frequently by double-digits against weaker conference opponents. The only pause for taking Sam Houston State is they could be looking over their shoulder with a big game against Abilene-Christian, the conference’s #1 team, looming just 2 days away. I just don’t see it preventing the Bearkats from taking care of business today. Lamar has lost by a margin of just over 8 ppg over their last 5 games; the Bearkats are 12-5 ATS this year. Take the favorite.
USC -4 (-110), 1.5 units: I’ll take a shot on the Trojans tonight. USC is a far better rebounding team and they are significantly taller than the Ducks on average, meaning they should dominate the front court. Although I really like Oregon’s coach Dana Altman, and I think Oregon is a good team that can make it further than pundits think, USC is in a better spot at home after a disappointing loss to Arizona. One or two more losses and the Trojans could slip out of first place in the PAC-12. Expect USC to take care of business tonight.
