Iowa first half +2.5 (-110), 1.5 units and Michigan full game -5 (-115), 1 unit: Much like the Ohio State/Michigan game this past weekend, I think the Hawkeyes can keep pace with Wolverines for most of this contest. Iowa has improved on defense lately and they’re now ranked #1 in adjusted offense according to KenPom, so we know they can score with anyone. I also like the matchup of senior center and future NBA draftee Luka Garza against Michigan’s young stallion Hunter Dickinson. Dickinson should be able to go toe to toe with Garza but I think Garza will be motivated to assert himself as alpha dog in the front court. To me there’s more value in a first half bet; disparity tends to present more glaring over longer periods of time. Michigan is too good on both sides of the ball and they’re at home, so I’ll take a slightly inflated number here for the full game. The Wolverines have as consistent as any team in the nation not named Gonzaga. This should make for great TV.
Weber State -6 (-110), 1.5 units: Weber State needs this game to stay in NCAA Tournament contention, where their chances currently stand at 29% according to Lineups.com. Sacramento State will have significant issues defending and keeping up with the Wildcats, who move at one of the quicker paces in the nation. Take Weber State.
Belmont/EKU over 161 (-110), 1.5 units and Lean Eastern Kentucky +7.5: Two weeks ago these two squads totaled 166 points in a game with a lot of efficient offense. Belmont maintained control throughout all 40 minutes. Now EKU is back at home in a prime revenge spot and they still have a tiny chance of making the tournament. I like their side better than Belmont’s at +7.5, but the Bruins are one of the most consistent teams in the country. They’re on a 21 game win streak and they cover 73.9% of their games, too. That’s enough to scare me away from a side but I like the extra motivation to push the pace for EKU and to send this game soaring over the total.
