What a nice ass-kicking that was yesterday. Only one of my official plays hit, my two leans actually won, and Baylor and Duke swiftly blew their spots. Maybe at this point it doesn’t mean much when I say it, but I feel good about today’s angles. Cringing and awaiting the jinx, here are my free picks for Sunday’s college hoops:
Villanova -11 (-115), 1 unit: As the NCAA Tournament draws near, we’re starting to see elite teams lay wood on weaker opponents in an effort to gain momentum before the madness. Jay Wright is one of the more buttoned up coaches in the country. I actually really like Villanova (+1600) as a potential tournament winner for that reason. He’ll have the Wildcats ready for this one, so the “revenge spot” angle or “let-down” angle doesn’t scare me here today. The Wildcats beat Butler handedly in their first matchup by 19 points. The Bulldogs got a nice win against Seton Hall recently; nice. But they’ll be humbled today. Just one unit, but a trust the significantly better team to show it today.
Memphis -3.5 (-115), 1 unit: I don’t love betting on an away favorite, but Cincinnati lost a key member of their offense when guard David DeJulius announced he was opting out earlier this week. Memphis boasts the #2 ranked adjusted defense in the country, which will be present a significant challenge for a home dog who struggles to score. Cincinnati has a slim chance to make the tournament; Memphis is in a much better position to get there. I wish this line was at 2.5 or 3, but I’ll put one unit on the Tigers winning by 2 possessions. They’re the more complete, better positioned team here.
Maryland -2 (-110), 2 units: This line probably should be higher but Michigan State has a popular brand in the world of college hoops, so all we need is the Terps to close it out with a one-possession lead at home Sunday. Winners of now 4 in a row, Maryland has eked their way into the tournament with effective offense and stout defense in the month of February, besting a range of tough Big 10 opponents. Their bid still isn’t guaranteed, however, so the Terps need this game as much as Sparty. Michigan State has showed some real gumption recently and I still love me some Tom Izzo, but this feels like a spot where Sparty gets humbled once again in an effort to recreate magic. The Terps are a more balanced, better unit. Bet Maryland.
UTEP -6.5 (-110), 1.5 units: UTEP waxed the 49ers yesterday and I see no reason why this game looks any different. Charlotte needs turnovers to have a chance against good offenses, something they failed to do Saturday and it’s unlikely they’ll succeed today. The Miners are at home for the second straight game and they know how to beat the 49ers. Expect them to execute again on the Sabbath. A line at -6.5 feels way too low.
Loyola (MD) wins (+155), 1 unit and
Lehigh wins (+145), 1 unit: I’ll take a shot on one of these two teams to win today. I like Lehigh a little more at home, but the disparity between Lafayette/Lehigh and Loyola /Navy isn’t that tremendous. Loyola and Lehigh both play at a significantly quicker tempo than their foes. Plus, neither of the favorites have a great shot at making the tournament (Navy: 19%, Lafayette: 3%). This is a double-header in both games where both of the favorites got a win in the first contest– something tells me at least one of these dogs will hit today. I’ll spread one unit on each and say a prayer.
