James Madison -9 (-110), 1.5 units: The first game of the hump-day slate is Elon against James Madison in a classic battle of Colonial Athletic elite against conference dumpster-fire. JMU is far better than Elon in just about every category. They’re one of the best teams in college basketball in getting to the free throw line and Haslametrics rates JMU 41st in the nation in consistency– you get what you expect from the Dukes. They’re a high scoring, top 150 offense that loves to beat up on weaker in-conference foes. Elon is one of the worst teams in the country at second-chance scoring and they’re in the bottom 5th in the nation in adjusted offense according to KenPom. I don’t think 9 points is enough; JMU covers with ease.
LSU +8.5 (-110), 1 unit: Both LSU and Alabama are coming off disappointing losses, and maybe some think it’s an advantage spot for Bama at home, but I think it favors the Tigers. Last time these two faced, the Crimson Tide out-raced LSU and ended up blowing them out by 30 points at LSU’s home court. If you think that doesn’t add fire to this revenge spot, you would be wrong. LSU has a top 10, prolific offense that scores more per game than their opponent. Bama has a clear edge in adjusted defense (LSU ranks 146th, Alabama ranks 8th on KenPom), but I think the extra motivation will fire up the underdog and keep LSU in this contest. Don’t be surprised if the Tigers are ahead in the first half, too. When they’re fluid and confident, LSU can score at a lightning pace. This is a heated rivalry game where we have to throw some stats out the window– I expect Cameron Thomas and company to come out on fire and LSU to cover.
Virginia -6.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a spot play on Virginia after that huge, disappointing loss against Virginia Tech. The two titans of the this year’s ACC went head-to-head Saturday and VA-Tech out-shot, out-worked, and out-defended UVA. This can’t sit well with the Cavaliers. The Hokies shot 50% both from the field and from the 3-point line, procured more rebounds, and had 3 more blocks than UVA. NC State is an average opponent, but average won’t be enough tonight. This line actually makes me pause a bit because it feels way too low. Expect the Cavaliers to flex their muscles and reclaim their confidence atop the ACC; the Wolfpack just won’t win any of these matchups against a motivated UVA unit.
