2-1 last night in college hoops and we need a few more wins to get over .500 for the week. Let’s hope for another winning day on this Friday eve!
SIU Edwardsville -1 (-105), 1.5 units: This is a 2:00 EST start so my apologies for the close call here. Tennessee State and SIU Edwardsville are two relatively even teams, both pretty crappy in the national picture but the latter more respectable in the Ohio Valley Conference. Kyle Hunter pointed out SIU Edwardsville’s upcoming schedule in February and he’s right– boy is it brutal! It looks like the Cougars will play at least every other day throughout this next month and that will absolutely take its toll. To me that means the Cougars need to win when they’re in good position to do so and this is one of those spots. I usually love a revenge game and Tennessee State was bested on their home court last time against SIUE, but the Tigers are just a bad outfit and they have to be losing motivation at this point. Look at the January 21st box score between these two teams and the Tigers out-performed or did just as well than the Cougars in just about every category, and the Cougars still won. I think SIUE plays better today on their home court and secures an easier win before they inevitably get blasted by Belmont on Saturday.
Ohio State +5.5 (-105), 1 unit: This might be the spot where Iowa plays to their potential and blows out the Buckeyes, but I don’t trust what I’ve seen from them lately. Garza is a beast but the Hawkeyes are on a 0-3 ATS run and it shows– they went blow for blow with an inferior Michigan State team and lost against two above-average Big 10 teams they should have beaten– Indiana and Illinois. Is this a better spot for Iowa, who’s undoubtedly due for at least a little positive regression? Maybe. Or is it a better spot for an Ohio State team that seems to have found its rhythm riding a 3-game winning streak into this high-profile matchup? The Buckeyes have an exceptional offense and they’ve faced a tougher schedule thus far. I think they can certainly hang with the Hawkeyes and could even get the upset win. I love the way the Buckeyes play on both sides of the ball and I’m on the underdog in a closely fought, Big 10 battle.
Belmont -14 (-110), 1.5 units: Belmont sits atop of the Ohio Valley and looks to continue their undefeated conference streak today as they take on bottom-dweller Eastern Illinois. Last time out the Bruins out-paced the Panthers and won by 13 on their home court. Eastern Illinois turned the ball over 20 times but stayed in the game for most of the 1st and 2nd half thanks to great 3-point shooting, sinking long-balls at a clip of 44% compared to just 28.6% for Belmont. While Belmont didn’t play their best game, it was still an easy win and I expect another similar performance. To me this is another example of one team losing motivation day by day as their season floats away and another team who has no reason to take their foot off the pedal. Belmont is a significantly better team and they play at a tempo and offensive efficiency (ranked 51st on KenPom) that should overwhelm the Panthers earlier than the last contest. I’m on the favorite to cover.
