Iowa choked again, Villanova didn’t quite do enough and Loyola Chicago fooled me twice– not the ending to the weekend I wanted but overall, I was 27-23 and +6.50 units on the week. Let’s stay way over .500 in CBB for the next 7 days, starting now!
Quinnipiac -3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Fairfield didn’t fare well (get it?… you get it) against Quinnipiac a day ago and I don’t see them faring any better today. The Stags are one of most inefficient teams in the country, with below-average defense and a slow-paced, ineffective offense. We saw that clear as day when the Bobcats easily out-paced and out-performed Fairfield, winning by a 15 point margin and holding a lead all game. While Quinnipiac isn’t a stalwart program by any means, they play at a fast tempo and their defense is ranked in the top half of the country according to KenPom. This line is giving the Stags the “double-header respect” and I get it, but it’s wrong. Fairfield really struggles against any team that plays remotely good defense. The Bobcats can beat up on Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (quite a mouthful, isn’t it?) bottom-dwellers and they’ll win by margin again today.
Eastern Kentucky -9 (-115), 1.5 units: SIU Edwardsville is really bad, and they’re even worse when they play against an above-average conference team. Eastern Kentucky isn’t Belmont, but they play with an aggression that doesn’t bode well for an ultra inefficient team like SIUE. The Colonels rely on turnovers and fast breaks and a lightning pace to defeat their opponents– something that doesn’t work against more experienced and elite teams like we’ve seen in their recent losses, but something that works really well against inferior opponents. This is a good spot for the Colonels to get-right after 2 recent losses, and they need to keep winning to stay competitive in the Ohio Valley. I like Eastern Kentucky to cover and this line is rising– get on it while you can.
UNC Greensboro +4 (-105), 1 unit: I’m taking a shot at UNC Greensboro because I like this matchup for the Spartans. UNCG is one of the best teams in the country at defending the 3 point shot, ranking 16th according to Haslametrics. Furman relies heavily on 3 pointers and have little refrain from launching it beyond the arc. This should be a testy in-conference battle, which makes me want to favor a better defense before a better offense. I love that UNC Greensboro is getting points in a game they could easily win. Give me the “dog” and the considerably better defensive unit.
Miami +10 (-110), 1.5 units: Even in an OT loss, I was really impressed by the way Miami played Saturday against ACC rival Virginia Tech. When in-sync, the Hurricanes are a dangerous team. That was a PRIME spot for the Hokies and still, Tech needed a last second 3-pointer to send the game to overtime. UNC is coming off a huge win Saturday in the “greatest rivalry in sports” against Duke. It was a valiant effort on all sides of the ball and they probably should’ve won by more (the officiating was horrendous at the end, giving Duke more of a chance than they deserved). That makes tonight’s game against the ‘Canes a huge let-down spot for the Tar Heels. This is too many points for a team this feisty, and I think Miami has a shot to get an upset win. Don’t be shocked it it happens.
Nebraska +11.5 (-110), 1 unit: Minnesota is a decent team but should they be valued by this much? The Cornhuskers are the bottom dweller of the Big 10 and they’ve had a tough year with COVID, but I think they’re getting a bit undervalued. After a long layoff, they returned to the hardwood and lost to Michigan State by 10. Not a great look, but coming back after a 4 week break is no easy feat. If this was their first game back I’d favor Minnesota, but Nebraska has played respectably against conference foes like Michigan State, Indiana, and even Michigan. I have to take a bet like this because I just don’t think it’s the right number. Minnesota -8.5 sounds right to me, so I’m on the dog.
