James Madison -3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: James Madison is the clear better team and plays at a pace that will disrupt Towson’s confidence. The Dukes score more and allow less than the Tigers and are among the top 50 teams in tempo. It’s easy to get cute and look for a revenge angle, especially with an in-conference contest, but the Dukes beat Towson by a good margin a few weeks ago, even with Towson having the field goal % and rebounding advantage. The Dukes should win by margin yet again.
Wisconsin -3.5 (-110), 2 units: Maryland is a good team to bet on and bet against, depending on the spot. The Badgers come into this game having just lost against conference foe Ohio State, while probably still fuming about their upset loss against the Terps back in late December. Wisconsin plays at a molasses-in-January pace (i.e., slow) and likes to overwhelm teams with their cerebral defense. Maryland relies on great shooting at a slow pace. In the first contest, the Terps shot a ridiculous 50% from the field and out-rebounded the Badgers in a game that went back and forth. I think this game will look different, with Wisconsin acting as the more motivated aggressor. Even better, I love betting on a team that lost at home against an in-conference opponent in the first game. Give me the Badgers in a big win at Maryland.
Parlay: VA Tech wins, game under 139.5 (1 unit to win 2.6 units): Notre Dame is a formidable opponent, but they haven’t played well against above-average teams or defenses. VA Tech won this first contest easily, and I think this looks like a repeat of that affair. Notre Dame is really good on offense, but in their first matchup the Irish were held to just 2/19 from the field in the second half; VA Tech played stifling man-to-man defense and dominated the boards. The Hokies just match up well against teams like Notre Dame, who rely on efficient offense amidst a slow tempo. I like VA Tech even more coming off a loss against Syracuse where they only scored 60 points. Give me the away team and the under.
Stephen F. Austin: +4 (-110), 1 unit: Last time Abilene Christian faced a team with an adjusted tempo this high (Sam Houston St.), they didn’t fair well. Stephen F. Austin plays at an aggressive, blazing pace and ACU will have a tough time keeping up. I like the dog to cover in a sneaky matchup-advantage. May want to sprinkle a little on the money-line, too.
Utah State -6 (-110), 1.5 units: Revenge game at it’s finest! Utah State blew it 2 nights ago (and blew a huge parlay for me, not that I’m still sulking…) when they couldn’t pull ahead late against UNLV. The good news for the Aggies is it’s unlikely that UNLV will shoot over 43% from 3-point land again (they literally couldn’t miss in the second half), and they should be motivated to rebound and play much better defense. Give me the better, more motivated team here. PS- this number is rising so bet it now if you like it!
