Oregon State +12.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Beavers are on a little tear right now after winning 3 straight games, including their recent victory over USC. This pick has less to do with Oregon State’s recent success, though. USC is the better team; I just don’t think they’re the better team by a 12 point margin. If you look at the box score between these teams a few weeks ago, the statistics were evenly matched. The Beavers had a slight edge in turnovers allowed and 3-point shooting, but overall the Trojans matched or exceeded Oregon State’s performance. Even on the season, USC scores only slightly more and allows only slightly less than Oregon State, and their strength of schedule isn’t that disparate. Although this is a better spot for USC, at home in a revenge game, I think this number is slightly too big. Oregon State can hang for the majority of this contest. USC will win, but not by double digits. This line is falling, so get it while you can at this number!
Rutgers -2, 1H only (-105), 1.5 units: Michigan State may be the better team here, I’m not really sure, but there’s a reason why the Scarlet Knights are favored. The Spartans are coming off 20 days of “rest” after a COVID-related hiatus– a situation that hasn’t served teams well after such a long layoff. Remember, these are kids– kids with families, midterms, finals, and the normal stress of a maturing adult. Their brains haven’t fully developed, and they’re more emotional than professional players. Only 23 days ago, the Spartans squashed Rutgers by more than 20 points. If you look closely at that game, Rutgers played well below their season averages. They shot only 30% from the field, only 25% from 3-point land, shot an absurdly bad 35% from the free-throw line, and got out-rebounded 45-25. Wow, that was one horrendous showing by Rutgers. If Michigan State is going to win or cover, they’ll surge in the second half. I think the spot for Rutgers is just too significant, at least in the first 20 minutes of play.
Northern Colorado -4 (-110), 1 unit: Virtually every statistic in KenPom ranks the Northern Colorado Bears as pretty hideous, in the bottom half of the NCAA in nearly every category (except luck… shocking). Northern Arizona? They’re even worse in every category. The Bears score more and allow less than the Lumberjacks, and they’ve fared well in the first game of a doubleheader all season (winning openers against Idaho State, Montana, Idaho, and Eastern Washington). This number seems right, but I’ll take a shot and put 1 unit on the Bears to cover against a Northern Arizona team that’s 0-6 at home and has a 3-6 conference record in the Big Sky. In other words, Northern Arizona is next-level horrible.
Belmont -5.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I’m trying hard (not sure why) to look at the Austin Peay side and favor the dog, but I just don’t see it. Belmont is on an absolute tear lately, which wouldn’t stand in a greater conference but it means something in theirs. They’re clearly the class of the Ohio Valley. Last year, Austin Peay was an ATS darling as a dog, but not so much this year. The Governors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games, while the Bruins are enjoying a 9-1-1 ATS run on the road. Austin Peay will play hard; I just think this number is too low. Belmont pulls away in the second half and covers.
