Rice +4, 1H (-105), 1.5 units: This is the first game in 2 weeks for North Texas, a well-disciplined USA Conference team who plays methodical and efficient both on defense and offense. It’s likely that North Texas will win this game, but how long will it take for them to get back into the flow of things? We see it in every game where teams are off a long-layoff– they’re not quite the same at first. Michigan State in the first 10 minutes last night is a great example of that. Rice scores more than the Mean Green and play at a much faster tempo. I think there’s a good chance that the Owls are very feisty and could take a lead in this game, especially in the the first half. Any time I think that’s true, I’m on the dog.
Bellarmine -8 (-110), 1 unit: Here I go with more bottom-feeder bets, but I can’t help it! There’s just too much opportunity in spots like this. Poor Kennesaw State is the bottom of the bottom, earning a 0-8 record in ASUN conference play. You might think I like this spot, then, since they’re returning home as a dog and it’s not like Bellarmine is Baylor. But for how average Bellarmine is, I do think they’re still significantly better than Kennesaw State. The Knights score a full 10 ppg better than the Owls, they allow 3 ppg less, and they’ve feasted on the weakest teams in the ASUN, not to mention the fact that Kennesaw State is literally in the bottom 10 ranked teams on KemPom. A school called Bethune Cookman is the next lowest ranked team… not making that up, so that should tell you something. Bellarmine is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 on the road. In short, I like Bellarmine to cover.
UC San Diego vs. Long Beach State over 153.5 (-110), 1.5 units: How much do you know about the Tritons and the “Beach” (seriously, I think that’s their team name, just Beach)? If you’re like the rest of America, probably not much, but I think there’s a real angle here on the over. UC San Diego is a fast-paced team, ranked #89 in tempo according to KenPom. Long Beach State? They’re ranked #12. Long Beach State also allows an insane 89 points per game, and they’ve been rocked on defense by teams with average offenses (like CSU Bakersfield, for example). A defense that bad, with tempos this fast and offenses that can score in bunches– this number is too low for me. I think this soars over.
Northern Colorado -4 (-110), 1 unit: Check out yesterday’s write up on this game, since it was postponed to tonight. Try to get this number at -4.5 or under; 5 or more feels a little too big in what could be a close contest between two pretty terrible teams.
Illinois -2 (-115), 1.5 units : A marquee matchup will close out Friday night between 7th ranked Iowa and 19th ranked Illinois. This should be an entertaining game and picking a side is a bit scary, but I think this is Illinois’ chance to shine. Both teams are among the top 10 in adjusted offense (2nd and 8th, respectively) according to KenPom. Iowa averages nearly 91 ppg and Illinois averages 83. A total over 160 is a huge number for an in-conference game in the Big 10, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes over. The difference will be on defense. According to KenPom, the Fighting Illini have had the 10th toughest schedule and have faced the 7th toughest offenses in the country. Still, their adjusted defense ranks in the top 25! Iowa has a lower strength of schedule, yet a significantly lower ranked defense at #100. At home, with both teams coming off 10 days rest (which could affect the offenses more than the defenses), I like the Illini to make more plays guarding the rim. They’ve done it all year, they’re underrated, and I think Iowa is a bit overrated. I’m on the lower ranked team, but the sharper side.
