Check out my 2nd article for even more NCAAM picks for your Saturday!
Alabama +1.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Two white-hot teams come into Saturday in a big showdown among elites, as #9 Alabama goes up against #24 Oklahoma. It’s hard to pick a side– both teams are well coached and should be highly motivated at tip-off– but I give the edge to Alabama for 2 big reasons: 3-point efficiency and pace. I think the Sooners will spend most of this game catching up to the Crimson Tide. Although both teams play fast, Alabama has virtually no weaknesses on offense. While Oklahoma stifles most of its opponents with a well-schemed and disciplined defense, Alabama moves the ball around with fluidity and is among one of the best shooting teams in the country beyond the arc (ranked 17th on Haslametrics on 3 pt. FG % against the average opponent). Bama overwhelms the Sooners late.
Duke -5 (-110), 1 unit: Yeeeaaa I really don’t want to bet on Duke this year, but this is a different situation. The Blue Devils finally seem healthy and they get a star back in Jalen Johnson. Clemson plays stout defense but they’re not particularly effective on offense, ranking 120th on Barttorvik’s offensive efficiency rating. Duke doesn’t have to play exemplary to win, and it helps that Clemson has really struggled on the road this season (0-4 ATS in their last 4 games). The Blue Devils should be highly motivated since their season, if it’s going to get back on track, really needs to kick in gear now.
Baylor -14.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I’ve tried really hard to look at the Auburn side and I ended up back on Baylor in yet another big win. Why? Because just like virtually every team they’ve faced, I think the Bears will overwhelm and run away with this game (and maybe by the end of the first half). The Tigers are a very formidable opponent, and the addition of Sharife Cooper has really boosted their offense (scoring 22.3 ppg since returning on January 9). In general Auburn has played really well lately, but it scares me that KenPom gives them a 347th experience ranking. Baylor, the 1st ranked defense and 3rd ranked offense according to KenPom, is playing for something different now– historical dominance. I mean the Bears have only won 2 games by less than double digits so far this year (and one was hokey, caused by a last second 3-pointer). I just can’t go against this team– Baylor is one of the most complete teams I’ve ever seen, and I don’t think Auburn is close in talent, grit or depth. This is a close line, but it’s still too short for me.
Florida State -4.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Seminoles easily beat the Yellow Jackets back in mid-December and I think this will look very similar. Florida State is just in a different class and they’re really starting to hum as an offense. Despite the revenge angle and how motivated Georgia Tech should be for this matchup, Florida State is so well balanced and stout defensively, and their offense is only getting better: an FSU researcher found that Florida State is now the No. 1 team in the nation at converting on guarded catch-and-shoot opportunities. In 105 contested catch-and-shoot situations, the Seminoles are producing at a 1.351 points per possession clip, tops in Division-I. The Seminoles should be able to control this game on both sides of the ball. If you like GA Tech, go for a first half line.
