SMU +10.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Houston Cougars have been incredibly impressive, winners of 7 straight and climbing the national ranks as they display one of the best defenses in the country and an offense that scores over 74 ppg. They rank 17th in adjusted offense and 3rd in adjusted defense according to KenPom. Next to Gonzaga and Baylor, they’ve been one of college basketball’s most dominant squads. Unfortunately, I think they’re just due for some negative regression. Insert SMU. Just below Houston in the American Athletic Conference sit the SMU Mustangs, a very solid team who would love to take out their foe. The Mustangs rank better than Houston in 2 point FG % and 3-point % and, according to KenPom, have faced virtually the same difficulty of opponents (Houston ranks 104th/SMU ranks 108th). They also score more than Houston at 77.5 ppg, and they’re one of the best teams in the country against 2 point field goals (ranked 17th on Barttorvik). This is a great spot for a highly motivated SMU team to contend with the conference leader, and frankly this game is on my upset-radar. I’m on the dog. PS– Both teams are coming off long 20+ day layoffs, so I also lean under 138 for a game that should start slow. A first half under could work, too.
Drake -18.5 (-110), 1 unit: The undefeated Drake Bulldogs take on Missouri Valley Conference bottom-feeder Illinois State, and their deserving of this big line. The Bulldogs score an incredible 82+ ppg and allow only 61 ppg. They’re also shooting over 50% from the field and Barttorvik ranks them 3rd in the country in 3-point efficiency. It’s probably fair to say, at some point, that Drake is due for negative regression. This just isn’t the spot. The Bulldogs are at home and Illinois State won’t have the talent or gumption to hold back the conference leader. I’m on Drake to win huge.
Sam Houston State +6 (-105), 1.5 units: Sam Houston State and Stephen F. Austin are two very evenly matched teams. SHSU scores 81 ppg, SFA scores 82 ppg. SHSU allows 71 ppg, SFA allows 72 ppg. And they’ve both had a layoff of around 3 weeks. One big statistical difference is strength of opponent. KenPom ranks SFA’s strength of schedule at 343rd, one of the easiest in the country. Sam Houston State has played the 141st toughest schedule, a considerable difference than their opponent. This is a big in-conference game and the Bearkats will be play over-their-heads to prove their merit. SHSU has won their last 5 road games, and I love their side today. Interesting stat: According to ESPN, the Sam Houston defense has forced opponents into turnovers on an impressive 24.6 percent of all possessions, which ranks the Bearkats 15th among Division I teams.
UNLV/Nevada 1H under 67 (-110), 1.5 units: Mountain West foes face off in the late slate Sunday as UNLV and Nevada jockey for position in their conference, and we love the under in the first half. Both teams play solid defense. In their last 5 games, the Rebels have only allowed 56.8 ppg. In the same span, the Wolfpack have allowed 71 ppg, but the Rebels aren’t the most offensively efficient team (ranked 103rd on KenPom), so they shouldn’t struggle too much. Both squads average around 67 ppg allowed on the season. UNLV and Nevada are also coming off significant layoffs– UNLV hasn’t played since Jan 16th, Nevada hasn’t played since Jan 9th. That usually means sloppy offensive play and a ton of missed shots and turnovers, especially in the first half. I’ll favor a slow-starting, in-conference game to fly well under 67 before any team gains a rhythm.
