Well yesterday was an absurd day in the conference tournament world for more reasons than one, but we still escaped on the right side of half our picks. Motivation is the most important factor heading into these rivalries– if a team doesn’t care as much as another (i.e. Marshall, Providence, Stanford, etc.), big upsets and blown lines are bound to occur. Let’s get after it for today’s picks:
Michigan State/Maryland under 130.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I’m going to avoid a side here since I like the way both these teams are playing heading into the Big 10 Tourney. The narrative is out there and it’s probably legit that Tom Izzo, in another conference tournament with his beady little eyes still set on making the big dance, is the best side here today. That may be right, but Maryland has been playing some pretty good basketball, too. The Terps arrive in Indianapolis now the losers of 2 straight games but they were on a 5 game win-streak before that. Efforts from the Maryland defense have been particularly noteworthy, holding opponents to only 58.8 ppg during that stretch. Those are UVA-like numbers. The truth is, MD has been pretty solid all year on defense, allowing only 64.7 ppg during the season and holding a top 40 adjusted defense ranking nearly all year on sites like KenPom and Haslametrics. Michigan State hasn’t done too bad either, allowing only 67.7 ppg in their last 7 contests and against more impressive offenses like Michigan and Ohio State. Yesterday’s two Big 10 conference games flew under, and maybe some of that has to do with the mega-sight that is Lucas Oil Stadium, but I think some of it is just the nature of the Big 10. Nerves are high, solid coaching; defenses step up. Give me another under in what should be a testy conference with two motivated teams.
Lean, Georgetown +8 (-110): In no way are the Hoyas on the same level as Villanova, but there are a few notable things that came out of Georgetown’s win against Marquette yesterday. Of course I was on the Marquette side, shutter, but nonetheless. Georgetown does a great job at offensive rebounding. Maybe this shouldn’t come as a shock having a coach like Patrick Ewing at the helm, but in that sense Villanova and Georgetown are pretty similar. Both rely on second-chance scoring opportunities and foul shooting to pull ahead from opponents. And it shows. In field goal percentage, the Hoyas were just as abysmal as Marquette Wednesday. Both shot under 40% from the field and both shot a measly 21% from beyond the arc. If Villanova plays with motivation and form and starts on fire from beyond the arc, this game could get out of hand. If it’s a gritty game down-low where players are fighting for rebounds, I like the Hoyas’ chances. This is a watch-and-see game for me, but I would lean Georgetown getting points.
UVA -5.5 (-105), 2 units: This is just a question of motivation. If the UVA that we know shows up and plays motivated at full strength, a solid Syracuse team may not have much of a chance. Syracuse is capable of scoring fast and in bunches, but the Cavaliers’ defense has enough to stifle the best offenses. The question lies in the Orangemen’s ability to penetrate UVA’s front court with fast-break and layup opportunities, two areas where they’re one of the best in the country and two ways that pose a real threat to UVA. If a team is successful at converting points off steals in particular, a stat that the Orangemen rank 19th best in the country, the Cavaliers perform noticeably worse. All that aside, I think the favorite will win and cover today. UVA coach Tony Bennett is one of the more professional, buttoned up coaches in the game, and he can’t be particularly happy with the way UVA ended their season. Losing 3 out of their last 5, and to in-conference rivals they hate like Duke and Florida State, must leave a bad taste in his mouth. I expect UVA to assert themselves in the ACC Tournament and make a statement against Syracuse.
Parlay: Ohio State wins + MIN/OSU under 146 (1 unit to win 1.5): Did you see the Minnesota vs. Northwestern game last night? Well I did and wow, that was some shitty basketball. Missed shots, turnovers, bodies flailing around the floor, guards unable to maintain their dribble, poor shot choice; I could go on and on. Minnesota was lucky to escape with a win. Holding a 7-point lead entering the final 5 minutes of play, Northwestern never scored again in the game’s final 4+ minutes which, considering how many free throws and shot opportunities are at the end of 99% of college games, is pretty staggering. Northwestern’s inefficiency was the real reason why the Gophers won. Now Minnesota has to shake that off, push through last night’s nightmares and take on a hungry Buckeyes team in the same menacing stadium. Good luck. Ohio State ended their season is regrettable fashion, losing against Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa and Illinois. Sure that might be the best of the best in the Big 10, but that’s not who we thought Ohio State was and it’s certainly not who they think they are. I think the Buckeyes will be very motivated today. With the defensive energy of Big 10 basketball and that stadium in Indianapolis, along with how ineffective Minnesota looks, this should result in another under, too.
Georgia Tech -9.5 (-105), 1.5 units: I really like Georgia Tech as a flyer to win the ACC Tournament (+500 right now). The Yellow Jackets have a fantastic offense, adjusted #25 on KenPom and #22 on Haslametrics (I think they may be even better), and they’re riding a 6 game winning streak into the ACC bracket. We’ve seen steady improvements in their defense, too. Miami put out a good showing on Wednesday against Pitt and that makes me want to fade them even more. The Hurricanes are one of the most up and down, inconsistent teams in the country and they could be running into a real buzz-saw today. Last time these two teams faced, the Yellow Jackets obliterated the Hurricanes in every facet of the game. Sometimes that’s an aberration because of motivation or just a good spot, but I don’t think that’s the case here. Georgia Tech is just better at playing basketball. GA Tech shot 57% from the field, 42% from 3 point land, 100% from the free throw line, and had 9 more rebounds than Miami. One good sign I look for is how a team performs in the second half when they have the game in hand. Tech was winning their first matchup 48-18 at the break; the game was over. But in the second half the Yellow Jackets kept pace and nearly out-scored Miami again, losing only by a 3 point margin by solidifying a 27 point beat-down. I don’t know if the blowout with look the exact same today, but I like a double-digit with for Georgia Tech, easily.
Wisconsin -5 (-110), 1.5 units: If you didn’t listen to TheOddsBreaker himself on yesterday’s ATS.io podcast, you should. The podcasts on this site and on that weekly pod with ATS.io feature Big 10 conversation and I really like what Kiev had to say yesterday on Wisconsin. The Badgers are stacked with seniors, so they have way more experience than most Big 10 teams, and they have not played to expectations this season. Needless to say, they’re motivated and they’ve said as much in the media. Penn State plays really well at times and then look like one of the crappiest Big 10 teams at other times. I don’t trust them today after that big comeback win against an inferior team. They probably should have lost. I’ll take a shot on a motivated, experienced Badgers squad who could have a sneaky chance at winning their conference tournament.
