Too bad UNC didn’t pull off the win last night or we really would have had a big day. Still love the Tar Heels as a dangerous team in late March. If the last week was any indication, these games should be highly entertaining and close (hence why we favor so many dogs). Alright, it’s Saturday baby! Let’s get to the picks!
Michigan -6 (-115), 1.5 units: I was a believer in Ohio State for a very long time until they started to cool off in February. The Buckeyes have some killer shooters, particularly Duane Washington from beyond the arc, and when they’re fluid on offense they can catch a team off guard and go up quick. Michigan had a few let-down spots but they’re as commanding and consistent as any team in the country. They also have the deepest roster by far in the Big 10 and they’re talented at every position. I questioned Michigan’s motivation heading into the Big 10 tourney, but after watching the Wolverines stifle and then roll a surging Maryland squad yesterday, I have no hesitation about this pick. Michigan won’t let Ohio State overtake their throne. And the way the Buckeyes let teams come back late in games spells bad news for this show-down. Take Michigan.
Alabama -5 (-105), 1 unit: Alabama is clearly the class of the SEC, at least by my estimations. And yes, most of that is because of their electric offensive attack. This is only a 1 unit play because Tennessee is of course a tough, reputable opponent with a great defense. They also have a little revenge angle here after their loss to the Crimson Tide in early January. But like most teams, I don’t see the Volunteers keeping up with Bama’s ability to score. PS– Alabama is also the #2 adjusted defense in the nation now according to KenPom. They’re not too shabby on the other side of the court, either.
Iowa +4 (-105), 2 units: Illinois is the hottest team in the Big 10 but Iowa is a close second. The Hawkeyes have showed toughness and resilience over and over again the past 2 months and a surging Illinois team won’t intimidate them. The Illini love to push the pace and Iowa will have to keep up, but Luka Garza won’t allow big Kofi Cockburn to completely dominate this game. It’ll be a back and forth battle and as we’ve seen so many times this week, I wouldn’t be shocked if it goes to OT. Take the dog.
Memphis +7 (-110), 1.5 units: Memphis isn’t giving up that #1 adjust defense designation on KenPom any time soon and good for them– the Tigers have looked like a confident contender and they still pose the biggest challenge for Houston in the AAC. In their last matchup against the Cougars, Memphis went punch for punch with the class of the conference. Anfernee “Penny” Hardaway is proving to be an exceptional coach and great recruiter. The Tigers may lose, but they won’t go out lightly.
Georgetown +8.5 (-110), 2.5 units: Damn right I’ll continue backing the Hoyas. Game after game and in the toughest final minutes, Patrick Ewing’s unit steps up in big ways, especially on the boards and on the free throw line. Creighton is an elite team but they are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in America (ranked 332nd on Haslametrics). They’re literally worse than teams like Merrimack, Long Island, Bethune-Cookman, UMass Lowell, you get it. Think that’ll matter in the final minutes? I do. Georgetown has been lights out at the end of games at the FT line and they’re one of the best in the country in FT percentage (36th). Combine that with their talent in the front court and it’s an easy dog bet for me. I love their moxie and last time I checked, we’re still at MSG– this is Patrick’s house babbyyyy! Take the Hoyas.
Georgia Tech wins (+165), 1 unit: I thought a fired up UNC team would take down the Seminoles but now I’ll double down on an even hotter team to do it. Winners of now 7 straight with an offense that seems to be getting better and better, the Yellow Jackets got a convenient day off yesterday to prep for the ACC Final. The Seminoles sealed a hard fought win against the dangerous and talented Tar Heels Friday. From a matchup standpoint, I don’t see much separating Florida State and Georgia Tech. The spot favors Tech with a day of rest and a ton of momentum. The Seminoles are volatile away from home and tend to blow big games. The value lies with Georgia Tech.
Oregon State/Colorado over 132.5 (-110), 2 units: This Pac-12 game should be closer than the line indicates and I really like the way Colorado has flexed on offense lately. In their last 5 games, the Buffaloes are averaging 71.6 ppg; Oregon State is averaging 74.6 ppg in the same span. I get why this number is lower, but a hotly contested game should result in more points and free throw attempts. Give me the over.
