What a nice start to March last night as I went 3-2 overall in CBB for a slight uptick in units (+.88). I went 4-0 in the NBA, which has definitely been my cash cow (check out my Daily NBA Free Picks if you don’t already); let’s catch up! Onto my Tuesday picks:
Baylor -4 (-110), 2 units: Yea I can’t pass on this game. If somehow this loses so be it, but this is another number play on the Bears after a very disappointing loss against Kansas last weekend. Baylor was in the conversation as one of the best regular season college basketball teams anyone had seen in quite some time. Elite on offense and defense, they looked like the same dominant squad every single time you watched them. They also had no problem covering most of their spreads (68.4% ATS on the year), even after they were getting inflated. Baylor heads into tonight to face a very tough West Virginia team at their home court. It’s not an ideal spot since it’s their second straight tough road game and they have two more big games on deck against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. But the good news is the Bears have, obviously, already made the tournament (and so has West Virginia). These games are more for pride and momentum. Last time out against Kansas, Baylor got out-rebounded 48-28. They also shot a poor 35% from the field and an even poorer 23% from beyond the arc. Do you think that’ll continue? I don’t. Eventually, and I think it’s tonight, the Bears will obliterate someone. The Mountaineers are a really good ball club and their big man Derek Culver is dominant. They’ll be motivated, too. I just think this means more to Baylor and West Virginia is the unfortunate victim. The Bears need to get right. Baylor win by 10.
Illinois +8 (-110), 1.5 units: I’m not saying I think the Illini will win this game, but Michigan has been about as consistent and dominant as any team in the nation, so eventually you’d think they could have at least a slight let-down game or let their guard down a tad. Illinois is not a team you want to do that against– just ask Wisconsin. Big man Kofi Cockburn is capable of dominating a game on both ends of the floor and he won’t be an easy matchup for Michigan’s young star Hunter Dickinson. Their guards, who were responsible for most of the scoring Saturday, proved they could hold up their team, too. Besides a little blip on the radar where Illinois lost to Michigan State, the Illini have won 8 of their last 9 contests and should not be taken lightly. Both teams are locks for the postseason but neither wants to lose momentum. The Wolverines are fantastic on defense but I don’t think they’ll be able to completely stifle the Illini– their offense is too good and too consistent. Take Illinois with the points.
Xavier -2.5 (-110), 1 unit: Georgetown plays better at home but that stat is a bit overstated. The Hoyas are about as good on the road (57%) as they are at home (58%) against the spread. Tonight, covering the spread may prove very difficult. The Xavier Musketeers come into Tuesday night after a great win over Creighton that may have been the boost they needed to keep their tournament hopes alive. They need to keep winning, though, and tonight’s game and Thursday’s game against Marquette (also on the road) stand in the way. I’m sure Georgetown would love to play spoiler. Xavier is a much better shooting team overall than the Hoyas. The only issue is Xavier likes to take high percentage shots; an area where Georgetown is particularly skilled on defense. The Hoyas are also great rebounders. This won’t be an easy win. I’m an edge/angle bettor more than a stats bettor though and it’s served me well. Xavier is still the more skilled and more prolific scoring team and they NEED this game. Give me the Musketeers at a reduced line.
Ole Miss -2.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Ole Miss and Kentucky are two evenly matched teams with very slim chances to make the tournament, but this is more about line movement cues. Kentucky has been very up and down lately, particularly on the offensive side of the court. This isn’t a good look going up against an Ole Miss team that’s only allowing 64.7 ppg in their last three contests. Kentucky is also pretty horrible against the spread (ATS). The Wildcats are 3-5-2 (37%) ATS on the road and 6-14-2 (30%) ATS overall. That’s abysmal. They also turn the ball over on the road, averaging 15.9 turnovers per away game. What we’re seeing in this line today is a great microcosm of how the season has gone for these two teams. Kentucky just hasn’t maxed out their potential, while Ole Miss has played better than expected. The Rebels are at home and their solid defense should give Kentucky issues. This is a better spot for Ole Miss and the sharps agree– this line keeps moving up. Bet on the Rebels to cover the number.
