Well UCLA really lost steam in the final 5 minutes last night. I wasn’t surprised by how buttoned up Villanova looked but a bit taken aback by how lackluster Creighton played. Ah well! We’re 8-6 on the week in CBB and +4.37 units– let’s get MORE! Onto Thursday:
Duquesne +5 (-110), 1 unit: It’s the second round of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament and I’m here for it, especially when games start at 11:00am! The competitive spirit of the tournament is built into the line here and Richmond does have a considerably better offense than Duquesne. Still, the Spiders leave me with some concern. At the onset of this strange season, Richmond believed they were among the elite in the Atlantic 10 and a tournament bid was in their future. Fast forward to now and although talented, Richmond has blown many opportunities (especially against inferior opponents) to reach their potential. A tournament win could get them in the big dance but at a 9% chance according to Lineups.com, hope is fading. The Spiders finished their season on a 2 game losing streak, getting bested by Saint Louis and a streaking Saint Joseph’s, which tells me they’re lacking some real motivation. What’s more– 2 of their key players are banged up and questionable heading into this matchup. Duquesne has proven they can get up and play with the big boys and they only lost by 7 the last time they faced Richmond, who were in a much better spot. I like the Dukes to keep this close.
Saint Joseph’s +4 (-110), 1 unit: Another Atlantic 10 tournament game and another angle I love. Has anyone been paying attention to Saint Joseph’s? We bet on them the other day and scored a nice win. Saint Joseph’s is now on a 4-game winning streak and it hasn’t been against slouches either. Richmond, Dayton, twice against La Salle. I’m not going to overanalyze this– I’ll keep riding the Hawks until the wheels fall off. They’re enjoying this run and should give UMASS a run for their money today.
Dayton -3.5 (-115), 2 units: I love this setup for the Flyers. Rhode Island ended their season losing 6 of their last 7 games. Their only win in that stretch: a 2-OT-thriller victory against Dayton. Dayton has more experience and a more effective offense than the Rams. Rhode Island will also be without Jeremy Sheppard, one of their only two players who average double-digit ppg. The other, senior guard Fatts Russell, has been wildly inconsistent. That will mean that even more inexperienced players will have to step up for the Rams in a big spot here. I like Dayton in a sweet revenge spot. They’ve been here before.
Michigan State +12 (-110) and Oklahoma State +12 (-115), both for 2 units: I’m grouping this together because they’re in very similar situations. Both Michigan and Baylor are entering today’s games a bit cold. Although Baylor got a terrific win against West Virginia a few days ago, they haven’t looked like the same team since their COVID pause. They’re mistake-prone and a little undisciplined, at least compared to what we’re used to. Michigan was overwhelmed by Illinois last weekend and seemed to take their foot off the gas. Besides, what more do the Wolverines have to gain? They’re guaranteed a high seed in the NCAA Tournament and they’re the class of the Big 10, regardless of these final game narratives. Michigan State and Oklahoma State will be supremely motivated for today’s games. Sparty comes into this wanting to keep their tournament chances alive (56% chance according to Lineups.com) and Oklahoma State is riding a 5-game winning streak. Both are on the road but I don’t think that means much. These games are usually back-n-forth battles between conference titans and the line should be treated that way. Even if both Michigan and Baylor blow their foes out of the water, the number is too juicy not to take. Give me Sparty and the Cowboys to keep it close.
Utah State -16.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This is a pretty simple handicap for me. The Utah State Aggies are the significantly better team all around and need to keep their NCAA Tournament chances alive with impressive wins before the Mountain West tourney. And this is the perfect matchup to do it. While Wyoming enjoys beating up on weaker in-conference opponents with their fast tempo and effective 3-point shooting, they’re abysmal on defense. The Aggies are extremely effective at preventing high percentage shots and second chance opportunities and what’s more, they’re exceptional at preventing shots from beyond the arc. Wyoming lives off the 3-ball for its success. This is not a good situation or matchup for the Cowboys– take the Aggies to surge tonight.
