Well it’s been a good week so far. My NBA Free Picks went 12-5 for +11 units and my CBB Picks have gone 11-9 for +7 units thus far. Pretty happy to get a break from NBA action so I can squarely focus on the conference tournaments and prep for March Madness. Spring is around the corner, the madness is back, and we’re winning every week– what a time to be alive! Onto my Friday picks:
Stetson +10 (-115), 1.5 units: There’s no doubt that Liberty is the class of the ASUN. They’re on a 10-game win streak and sit comfortably atop the conference. In general, the Stetson Hatters are a pretty subpar team with a particularly weak defense. But Stetson has shown an ability to turn up and compete with the best teams in the ASUN. They beat Bellarmine is their last contest and split games with Lipscomb and Liberty. In their win against the Flames, they didn’t do anything special. In fact Liberty actually shot better than Stetson from the field. The Hatters are an interesting case but if they play up to their potential today, 10 points is way too much. Take Stetson to be competitive.
Dayton +4.5 (-110), 2 units: This line has come down some but I’d take Dayton at +3.5 too. The VCU Rams bested the Flyers twice this year already, romping them in the first game and edging out Dayton in a back and forth battle in the 2nd. Dayton actually led in the 2nd contest by 8 points before VCU turned on the jets. The Rams are stumbling into the A-10 Conference tournament, though. Averaging only 68.6 ppg in their last 5 games, their offense hasn’t exactly been impressive. Dayton, on the other hand, looks motivated and fluid. They were efficient against Rhode Island from the field, from beyond the arc, from the free-thrown line, and in rebounding. If that Dayton teams shows up today, and I can’t imagine they won’t, they’ll be a big problem for a VCU squad coming in cold.
Boston College +4 (-115), 1.5 units: This is a simple analysis– How can I trust Miami? I can’t and I don’t. The U has looked awful for a long time now. Losers of 6 in a row and 10 of their last 11, I wouldn’t bet on the Hurricanes if you paid me. Boston College isn’t an elite team either but they play with pace and their offense is effective, especially against weaker opponents. The Eagles could easily win this straight up.
Jacksonville State +7.5 (-110), 2 units: The Belmont Bruins, who once had a 21 game winning streak and sat atop the Ohio Valley Conference like gods, have lost 2 of their last 3 games to end their season. They’re also 0-3 ATS in those contests. Jacksonville State proved how underestimated they are last night in an OT win against Murray State, making clutch shots and key plays at the most crucial spots in the game. Winners of 8 of their last 9 games, the Gamecocks bring real momentum and confidence into today’s big clash; I can’t say the same for the Bruins. Belmont defeated Jacksonville St. twice in the regular season, once by 7 points and once by 4 points, and that’s when they were humming. The energy will be different today. This game is on my upset-alert-radar and should be on yours, too. Bet the Gamecocks.
Colorado State wins (-110), 1.5 units: This spot favors Nevada; they’re at home and desperate for a win after 2 straight losses at Utah State. I’m choosing to ignore that. The Rams have stepped up time and time again this year in tough spots. As of today, they are predicted by many as a participant in the NCAA Tournament. And now they have a real shot at competing for the Mountain West Conference title. The Rams play with pace, have 5 straight wins of momentum, and should be extremely motivated to win tonight. Give me Colorado State to take care of business, again.
