The parents are coming to town so it’s a busy day for yours truly. These write-ups will be a little more concise today but trust that they come with the same quality research and rigor as all of my posts. I just hit 100 articles at TheOddsBreakers yesterday and I’m so proud to be a part of this badass site! To more wins and more money in your wallets as we tackle this huge Saturday with a ton of opportunity! (If you haven’t yet, check out my UFC 259 Best Value Bets before the big card tonight!)
Florida State -6.5 (-115), 2 units: I was able to grab the Seminoles last night at this line, and then it moved up to 8 and now I see it again at this number. GRAB IT. Florida State is the significantly better team and I know they’ve had their road woes but the Irish are in a real slump. The Seminoles know they have to play better on Saturdays and away from Tallahassee. Whether the Irish know they have to improve or not doesn’t matter to me. They don’t have the prowess or size to matchup with the Seminoles. Expect Florida State to show up big today.
UConn -9.5 (-105), 1.5 units: This number is a bit expensive for me but UConn’s hype is not hyperbole. Led by Bouknight, the Huskies play hard on defense and are very effective on the offensive end. Lately they’ve wiped the floor against every Big East foe not named Villanova and I expect they’ll do the same today. Georgetown isn’t the same team on the road and they have less to play for.
Marshall -12 (-110), 1 unit: This is one of two play-back games I’ll attack today. Marshall should have beaten Charlotte much more handedly last night. Expect them to assert more of their talent and pace on Charlotte and win by 15+.
Weber State -9.5 (-110), 1 unit: Playing back on Weber State just like I did with Marshall. Weber State should have blown out Northern Colorado in the first contest but the box scores shows just a 1 point victory. Yet the books still see the Wildcats as nearly a 10 point favorite. Hmm… yup- time to flex. Joe Bookie wants you to bet the Bears again.
Vermont (-115), 1.5 units: This is a pretty square pick. No matter which angle or trend or statistic I look at, it all favors Vermont at this number. They’re a significantly better team than Hartford, at home.
Ohio State -2 (-115), 2.5 units: This is my play of the day. Ohio State has managed to fall behind Illinois in the top 25 and if you think that sounds hokey, it’s because it is. I respect what the Illini have been able to do recently, their win against Michigan was impressive, but Ohio State is in a terrific spot here and they have all the reason and motivation to show their best selves today. Make no mistake about it- the Buckeyes ARE the better team and we’ll see significant improvements from them today, particularly on defense. I think this could get ugly.
Duke/NC over 148.5 (-110), 1.5 units: There’s too much distance between the first game and today to think the defenses will suddenly step up and completely change the flow of this game. The offenses will win the battle more often than not and I think we see a back and forth slugfest where the Tar Heels edge out Duke for a second straight victory. The eye test tells me NC’s guards match up really well against the Blue Devils.
