Lean- Houston -10 (-110): I think Joe Public could be all over Memphis in this spot since they’re a solid team getting a lot of points and KenPom ranks the Tigers as the #2 defense in the nation (it was #1 yesterday before Loyola-Chicago’s recent performance). What Joe Public might forget is Houston has been as dominant as any team in the country this year, especially at home (where they cover 76.9% of their games). I expect the Cougars to surprise Memphis today; it’s a huge uptick in class from what the Tigers are used to.
Florida wins (+190), 1 unit: The Gators beat down on the Volunteers 2 months ago and although it’s hard to judge how this one will go based on a game that far back, these teams have played relatively similar seasons since then. Tennessee gets the home spot but they’re led by a talented Freshman Jaden Springer– I’m not sure if I trust a freshie in a big spot like this against a tested Gators team. I’ll take a shot on the Gators to edge out the Volunteers again– they’re a better offense and they match up well.
Loyola-Chicago -8 (-110), 1.5 units: Drake is not in the same class as Loyola-Chicago. The Bulldogs struggled to get past Missouri State in their one conference tournament matchup while the Ramblers have been in cruise control, out-classing their way through the Missouri-Valley on a 5 game win streak, 2 of which were tournament beat-downs. The Ramblers’ defense is only improving, now ranked #1 in the nation according to KenPom in adjusted efficiency. We’ve seen a great effort and above-average season from Drake, but that ends today. I think the Ramblers impose their will before the big dance.
Michigan State +8.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is an absolute must-win game for the Spartans if they hope to keep their postseason bubble-hopes alive. For the Wolverines? I’m not sure how much they care. Michigan State has the talent to score; it’s execution that they struggle with. Hunter Dickinson could control and dominate this game again, but I trust Tom Izzo to contrive ways for his Spartans to get up and at least keep this game close with so much on the line. This is the game to do it.
