Not the most successful weekend in CBB for yours truly but sometimes that’s how the ball bounces. When most of my colleagues are similarly frustrated, I feel slightly better. The world of gambling college hoops can be frustrating, but overall we WIN and we win OFTEN at TheOddsBreakers. In that spirit, let’s start the week off right! Here are my picks:
Elon/Hofstra over 138.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Elon comes into this contest white hot as winners of now 6 straight, including a big win against conference giant James Madison one day ago. What a high for the Phoenix. After 2 more frustrating defeats at the hands of James Madison, Hofstra enters tonight following a solid win against Delaware. Hofstra has been the better team throughout the year and should take care of business today, but the line now sits at -5 in favor of the Pride. Although it’s a better spot for Hofstra, I can’t take them against the surging Phoenix. What I do like is the over. Both of these teams really struggle on the defensive end. Elon plays at a slow pace but they’ve shown they can turn up the intensity and tempo when they need to (citing their comeback win against JMU, for example). Hofstra controlled the pace of play against a slow Delaware unit and should control it tonight since they’re expected to play from ahead. Elon won’t be able to prevent Hofstra’s star Jalen Ray, who went off for 34 points against Delaware, nor should they be able to prevent the Pride from collecting a ton of offensive rebounds like they always do. The Pride are also rated 54th nationally in converting second-chance opportunities. In a game that’s tough to pick a side, I’ll take a shot on the total flying over.
Milwaukee +3.5 (-105), 1 unit: Milwaukee walks into tonight’s matchup against Cleveland State with a little strut after winning their last 3 games, including two hard-fought OT wins. They also beat Cleveland State in an OT game back on January 23rd. The Vikings sit atop the Horizon League despite starting the season with a rather pedestrian offense, relying more on their defense to set the tone. Lately they’ve fared better, averaging 79.4 ppg in their last 5 contests, but that stat is a bit inflated thanks to a 3-OT win that led to 108 points in their last contest against Purdue Fort-Wayne. I’m on the Milwaukee side today for a few reasons. First, if the Vikings are struggling on defense against an offense like Purdue Fort-Wayne, they could have real issues against Milwaukee. The Panthers routinely score over 80 points and if they do it again, it’ll be hard for the Vikings to keep pace. Milwaukee also thrives away from their home court (ranked 25th in the country according to Haslametrics) and against mid-range shots (ranked 21st on Haslametrics). Cleveland State lives and dies by their mid-range shot, which plays right into the Panthers’ paws. A line of 3.5 means the favorite needs to beat the other team by more than one possession, which I think favors a feisty Milwaukee team that could easily win tonight. I’ll take the points with a resilient dog.
Georgia State -7 (-110), 1.5 units: This is an interesting game. The Appalachian State Mountaineers beat Georgia State twice earlier in the year, at the Panthers’ home court. In their third matchup the Panthers bested App State with ease, a contest which added to their current 8-game win streak. Now in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Final, the Mountaineers find themselves as an unlikely opponent to Georgia State, a much less surprising team to make it this far. This feels like a trap game for App State. Riding high off of comeback and OT wins in their last two games against Texas State and Coastal Carolina, the latter of which went late into the night, the Mountaineers have to turn around and face a rival with a lot of momentum. It’s tough to go against Appalachian State on their Cinderella like run, but teams eventually regress to their mean and I think this is a prime spot for that to happen. App State is among the worst defenses in the country at defending shot opportunities, ranked 325th in defensive field goal attempt rate. The difference in this game will be from beyond the arc and at the free throw line. The Panthers wins games by converting low-range shots into fouls and free throw points. In the two games they lost against App State, they shot badly from beyond the arc (17.% and 28.6% in those games). In the game they won– 44%. I’m betting on a well-coached and talented offensive unit to find opportunities to get open and convert from long distance and create a wealth of opportunities at the free-throw line. If that happens, Georgia State will easily cover and become the 2021 Sun Belt Champions. I think it does.
UNC Greensboro -5 (-115), 2.5 units: This is another situation where we have a surprising team in the conference championship in Mercer, going up against a team everyone expected to be there in UNC Greensboro. Look back at the two contests where Mercer faced UNCG and you’ll see that the Spartans were in full command of both contests. Mercer actually shot better than UNCG in the first game and still lost by 13 points. In the second game, the Spartans let the Bears create a little comeback thanks to some untimely turnovers but UNCG never let them take the game away, thus the 3 point margin. Mercer’s run has been impressive but they are not on the same level as UNC Greensboro. Getting just 5 points on the Spartans, which is right at that 2 possession lead area, feels like a very cheap price to pay. I’ll take the favorite all day– the Spartans flex tonight.
