862 SE Louisiana vs South Alabama 1H UN 72 (-105)*
Strong system indicating a play to the first half under on these higher totaled games. I believe the books know this with the first half total set much lower than the full game. Looking at SELA when they played TXAMCC in their championship, I saw a team that was highly reliant on just a couple of players. South Alabama was one of the better teams in the Sun Belt, I expect them to isolate those players on defense and shut them down at home. Home team should dictate the pace here where SALA is middle of the pack in pace (170th). SALA prefers to get the ball inside and should be able to out athlete SELA there. I don’t expect them to give up a ton at home and they don’t have a tendency to foul (120th defensive free throw rate), so there shouldn’t be a lot of easy points. Market likes the over in this one, so it will be a small play, but I think this one may have moved too much.
