The NFC East: Last year, we went 2-0 in season win totals in this division with the Eagles and the Cowboys both hitting their overs. The NFC East went from the worst division in football to pretty darn good over the last two or three years. We had three, count it, three teams make the playoffs last year from this group of teams. This year, the NFC East gets the NFC West who has two easier teams in the Rams and the Cardinals, as well as the AFC East which a little bit rough. The clock is ticking on the Dallas Cowboys to make the playoffs, while the Eagles had it very easy in the playoffs only to get reffed out of their potential Super Bowl winning drive. The Giants and the Commanders are going to be very interesting this year. Can New York repeat a playoff appearance? Can Riverboat Ron work his magic this year when expectations are low? Let’s see how all of this pans out.
Divisional Odds: Eagles -120 – Cowboys +190 – NY Giants +800 – Commanders +1100
1. Philadelphia Eagles –
Vegas win total: 11.5
2022 Wins: 14
Pythagorean Wins: 11.45
Schedule: Medium – At large vs Minnesota, @ Tampa Bay, @ Kansas City
Schedule Last Year: Easy –
Key losses: DT Javon Hargrave, T Andre Dillard, RB Miles Sanders, G Isaac Seumalo, S Marcus Epps, OLB Kyzir white, OLB TJ Edwards
Key additions: RB D’Andre Swift, QB Marcus Mariota, S Terrell Edmunds, CB Greedy Williams
Whom they drafted: DT Jalen Carter, Edge Nolan Smith, T Tyler Steen, S Syndey Brown, CB Kelee Ringo
Summary: The game of football is won in the trenches, and nobody knows that more than the Philadelphia Eagles. This team has consistently reloaded their offensive and defensive lines over the past 10 years or so, and they have many playoff births and a super bowl win to show. The difficult thing for this team is now that they had to pay their quarterback Jalen Hurts, they will certainly have to shed some talent and it already started happening this year. One thing that this team did that I found was brilliant was drafting the whole state of Georgia over the past few years. These guys know how to win and it is very hard for me to find much fault in this fully loaded draft pool. If there is anything that I can pick on, it’s that the birds did lose a few guys on the offensive line. They had to shed some money in the secondary, but if this draft turns out, this defense will not miss a beat. As far as their season win total goes, I think that 11.5 is the perfect number for this team. The Eagles have the best defense in the league right now, and I believe they will be primed for another big super bowl run.
My Number: 11.73
Action – no play
Philadelphia Power rating: 6
2. Dallas Cowboys –
Vegas win total: 9.5 Juiced to the over -155 or 10 juiced to the under -105
2022 Wins: 12
Pythagorean Wins: 11.2
Schedule: Medium – At Large vs @ LA Chargers, @ Carolina, vs Detroit
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: OC Kellen Moore, G Conner McGovern, TE Dalton Schultz, RB Ezekiel Elliot, OLB Anthony Barr, CB Anthony Brown
Key additions: RB Ronald Jones
Whom they drafted: DT Mazi Smith, TE Luke Schoonmaker, Edge DeMarvian Overshown and a bunch of hope.
Summary: Dallas was a very solid team last year and they over achieved expectations by wining 12 games. In saying that, there was no better team in the fumble luck category with Dallas netting a massive +12 fumbles last year that really helped them to grab the wild-card and to get into the playoffs. It’s almost kind of sad to win 12 games and not win the division, making a good team have to go on the road for the whole post-season. The biggest issue with fumble luck is that fumbles are not as predictable as interceptions. Fumbles are much more random, and it is not correct to expect the same results for the 2023 season. The Cowboys have not resigned Zeke, and I do not think that relationship fosters an progress with this franchise in the future. Tony Pollard is the better running back, but now below average running backs like Malik Davis and Ronald Jones will have to step it up to carry some of the weight. I do not like this Cowboys team coming into the 2023 season. They will have a tricky schedule this year with some difficult at large games. I think the under is the way to go here at the 10.
My Number: 9.2
Action: Under
Dallas Power Rating: 3.25
3. New York Giants –
Vegas Win total: is 7.5 juiced to the under -120
2022 Wins: 9.5
Pythagorean Wins: 8.16
Schedule: Medium Hard: At large games @ Las Vegas, vs Green Bay, @ New Orleans
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: G Nick Gates, S Justin Love, C Jon Feliciano, WR Richie James, WR Kenny Golladay
Key additions: LB Bobby Okereke, DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches, DE A’Shawn Robinson, WR Paris Campbell, WR Jamison Crowder, TE Darren Waller
Key Draft Picks: CB Deonte Banks, C John Michael Schmitz, WR Jalin Hyatt
Summary: Coach Brian Daboll had himself a wonderful first year getting this team to the playoffs and somehow winning coach of the year over guys like Doug Peterson who took the Jaguars to a divisional win. This was a really huge accomplishment in looking at how tough the NFC East was last year. The G-men won a lot of one score games last year with some nice clutch play from Danny dimes. They also exposed a fraud in the playoffs in the Minnesota Vikings, but the real question is, were the Giants frauds as well? The answer is probably somewhere between a maybe and an absolutely. The Giants overachieved their Pythagorean win total by 1.36 games. The big issue for New York really was their defense in general last year. This team was in the bottom 20s in both opponent passing yards and rushing yards per game as well as ranking 28th in defensive overall EPA. So what does this team do to fix this? Very little actually. They did pick up a few guys like Rakeem Nunez-Roches and A’Shawn Robinson, but I still think think that this team will struggle at the linebacker position as well as the secondary. The Giants could have done more in free agency to make a legit run for a championship. Offensively, I thought that Richie James was a wonderful get last year to help ease the injuries of Wan’Dale Robinson and Sterling Shepard, yet they let him walk after this year in free agency. I also have to wonder how Saquon Barkley will be without a contract. Does he get paid or not? He was a key to the success of this offense last year. The Giants schedule looks pretty good from an at large situation, but they didn’t get many favors from the NFL netting negative nine games of rest which is fifth worst in the league. This team should be around the middle of the pack next year.
My Number: 7.83
Action – No Play
NY Giants Power Rating: -1
4. Washington –
Vegas Win total: 6.5 juiced to the over -120
2022 Wins: 8.5
Pythagorean Wins: 8.13
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games @Denver, vs Chicago, @ Atlanta
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: QB Carson Wentz, LB Cole Holcomb, QB Taylor Heinicke, G Wes Schweitzer, RB JD McKissic, G Trai Turner
Key additions: OC Eric Bieniemy, QB Jacoby Brissett, G Nick Gates, T Andrew Wylie, LB Cody Barton, G Trenton Scott, DE Abdullah Anderson
Key draft picks: CB Emmanuel Forbes, CB Jartavious Martin, C Ricky Stromberg, T Braeden Daniels
Summary: Lots of changes coming in for the Commies. Now that the Carson Wentz experiment blew up in their faces, Washington decided to remove him and go and get a new offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy from the Kansas City Chiefs. Now Bieniemy is highly touted and has been mentioned a lot for new head coaching opportunities but one has to wonder some if it was really all Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, or is Bieniemy responsible for some of the success. After watching how Matt Nagy faired with the Chicago Bears, I have to think that his chances might be a little slim. In saying that, this Washington offense was so bad last year, that there is really not much room to get any worse! I do like how this team finished their season strong using Sam Howell vs the Cowboys to win 26-6, which might give him some momentum coming into this season. I also like the fact that this defense should be one of the best in football. Last year, the Commies ranked fifth in defensive EPA and number one in success rate. They unfortunately lost linebacker Cole Holcomb to free agency, but they did replace him with Cody Barton. They also drafted some good cornerbacks that help them in a very rough division against guys like Ceedee Lamb, Devonte Smith, and AJ Brown. I really think that the success of this team will go through their young quarterback, and he has some very good weapons at the skill positions. From a scheduling standpoint, I thought that being the 4th place team was rougher than finishing third being that they have to go to Denver, instead of Las Vegas, but this team is tied for the most net rest days with Chicago and the Jets with +12 days rest. They do not get any teams coming off of a bye week. I think their win total is a tad bit too low and this team could be primed for a run at a wildcard spot.
My number: 8.61
Power Rating: -2.5
Action – Take to make playoffs +300 – .5 stars
*Blue color means hasn’t signed with a team
