The NFC East: The NFC East was a very split division last year with two teams that were good, at least through 2/3 of the season, and two teams that were straight up terrible. It’s hard to quantify what exactly went wrong with the Eagles last year, but I am sure fatigue set in at some point. Both the Eagles and the Giants greatly overachieved from an expected wins perspective based on Pythagorean win totals, while the Cowboys had a great regular season and maybe should have won an extra game. We already knew the Commies were in trouble early in the season, while seeing the Giants falter wasn’t much of a surprise. This year, The NFC East plays the NFC South which is nice, and the AFC North which is rough. Let’s see how this all shakes out.
Divisional Odds: Eagles +112 – Cowboys +130 – Commanders +800– NY Giants +1200
1. Dallas Cowboys –
Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the under -135
2023 Wins: 12
Pythagorean Wins: 12.70
Schedule: Medium Hard – At Large vs Detroit, @San Francisco, vs Houston
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: DC Dan Quinn, DE Dorance Armstrong, C Tyler Biadasz, RB Tony Pollard, LT Tyron Smith, DE Dante Fowler Jr., DT Jonathan Hankins, WR Michael Gallup, RT La’el Collins, LB Leighton Vander Esch, CB Stephon Gilmore
Key additions: ILB Eric Kendricks, RB Ezekiel Elliot, DC Mike Zimmer.
Whom they drafted: T Tyler Guyton, Edge Marshawn Kneeland, G Cooper Beebe, LB Marist Liufau and some dudes.
Summary: The Cowboys are all in for 2024, yet they haven’t done jack in the offseason minus losing a bunch of talent. The Cowboys are also being weird with their non-clutch quarterback in Dak Prescott. Is he non-clutch? Well in the playoffs, he certainly hasn’t performed. This Texas team lost a bunch of dudes this year. They are also just doing things that make no sense. Dallas released Tony Pollard this offseason, who they kept over Zeke in 2023, and this year, they signed a washed up Zeke back on the team. This move makes no sense and probably confuses the locker room. Dem boys also lost a bunch of starting offensive lineman, and are hoping that their draft picks can all turn out. What are the chances of that? Leighton Vander Esch wasn’t there much last year, but the Cowboys depth took a hit at linebacker with his retirement. Jerry Jones decided to keep coach Mike McCarthy another year where I just do not see him taking this team over the top. Ok, now the good stuff. Dem Boys were number 2 in pass EPA and number 10 in rush EPA from 2023. On defense, they were number 5 in pass EPA and number 10 in rush EPA. Mike Zimmer replaces Dann Quinn at defensive coordinator which makes me think that Jerry Jones just likes old guys. The Cowboys won 12 games last year, and according to their Pythagorean win total at 12.7, they actually under-achieved. Very solid performances, but we must remember that four of those games were against the Giants and the Commies. None the less, I think that Dak is a very good regular season quarterback, but this team is losing trenches due to having to pay their stars. CeeDee Lamb is next on this list who will require a suitcase full of cash. I think that this team has really fell off the wagon when it come to finishing out a season, and now this team will be thin in the trenches. The window is closing for big D. If were the GM, I would decide to NOT PAY DAK until he wins an NFC championship. If he holds out, then move on. I have the Cowboys winning 9.85 games so lean to the under.
My Number: 9.85
Action: Lean under
Dallas Power Rating: 4.25
2. Philadelphia Eagles –
Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the under -125
2023 Wins: 11
Pythagorean Wins: 9.13
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large vs Green Bay, vs Jacksonville, @ LA Rams
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: DC Sean Desai, OC Brian Johnson, C Jason Kelce, RB D’Andre Swift, FS Kevin Byard, QB Marcus Mariota, G Jack Driscoll, Edge Nicholas Morrow, DT Fletcher Cox, ILB Fletcher Cunningham
Key additions: OC Kellen Moore, DC Vic Fangio, RB Saquon Barkley, LB Bryce Huff, S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, ILB Devin White, RT Mekhi Becton, DT PJ Mustipher, C Matt Hennessy, Edge Zach Baun
Whom they drafted: CB Quinyon Mitchell, CB Cooper DeJean, Edge Jalyx Hunt, LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr.
Summary: The Eagles went from 10-1 to 11-6. How the heck did this team finish the season so poorly? Not to mention getting blown out in the wild-card game in Tampa Bay. Well, I attribute this to a few things. First, the team was very injured especially on defense after the 1st half of the season. Second, the team was mentally exhausted in having that big super bowl run from 2022. Third, I think that Nick Siriani isn’t as good of a coach as some once thought after he lost his two coordinators in the 2022 offseason. Fourth, the Eagles had a harder schedule than they did the year before. This year, the Eagle’s schedule moves back to Medium Easy with a nice +12 days net rest. There were a lot of changes made this year for 2024. Two new coordinators, and a bunch of free agents come into the locker room trying to make a difference. I really like the changes as a whole. Vic Fangio is maybe the best DC in the league while Kellen Moore has shown talent running the show in Dallas a few years back. This move should certainly sweeten up this rivalry. The losses of center Jason Kelce and DT Fletcher Cox hurt, but you really have to love what this team did in free agency and in the draft. Getting secondary help from getting the best corner in the 2024 NFL draft in Quinyon Mitchell, and maybe the most versatile defensive back in Cooper DeJean was smart. I expect the tush-push to live on for 2024, but I have to think that teams should be more prepared for it this year. Even though this team over-achieved from a Pythagorean perspective, I think that they did enough in the offseason to get right back close to the top in the NFC. This team will go as far as Jalen Hurts takes them this year, and I like the Eagles to win the division just like the market does.
My Number: 11.07
Action – no play
Philadelphia Power rating: 4.75
3. New York Giants –
Vegas Win total: is 6.5 juiced to the under -135
2023 Wins: 6
Pythagorean Wins: 3.94
Schedule: Medium: At large games vs Minnesota, @ Seattle, vs Indianapolis
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: DC Wink Martindale, S Xavier McKinney, RB Saquon Barkley, DE A’Shawn Robinson, QB Tyrod Taylor, G Ben Bredeson, DE Jihad Ward, CB Adoree Jackson, G Mark Glowinski, WR Sterling Shepard
Key additions: DC Shane Bowen, DE Brian Burns, G Jon Runyan, RB Devin Singletary, RT Jermaine Eluemunor, QB Drew Lock, G Austin Shlottman, DE Jordan Phillips and a bunch of prayers
Key Draft Picks: WR Malik Nabers, S Tyler Nubin, CB Andru Phillips
Summary: Last year the Giants played more like midgets. Coach Brian Daboll proved that his coach of the year award that he received back in 2022 season was a complete fugazi. What is worse is that this team had to get rid of their better quarterback in Tyrod Taylor because they paid the wrong guy in Daniel Jones. I know it, he knows it, and most of the NFL knows it. Even with a decent quarterback, this team lost a lot of top guys on the defense from last season. Their best move however was getting edge rusher Brian Burns for a steal from Carolina. Burns is a beast and should be able to at least keep this defense half way respectable. The Giants two biggest free agent losses where Saquon Barkley, and Xavier McKinney. I don’t see much of a replacement for them in getting Devin Singletary and Tyler Nubin to fill in. It also doesn’t bode well to see the Giants as the 2nd most over-achieving team from 2023 from a Pythagorean standpoint when they should have won only 4 games. The Giants were an abysmal 30th in EPA per play on offense and 22nd on defense. These numbers were relevant even before the injury to Daniel Jones. I have a very low projection for this team, and I think that the Giants might end up being the worst team this year in the NFL.
My Number: 5.07
Action – Under
NY Giants Power Rating: -5.5
4. Washington –
Vegas Win total: 6.5 juiced to the under +100
2023 Wins: 4
Pythagorean Wins: 4.64
Schedule: Medium – At large games @ Arizona, vs Chicago, vs Tennessee.
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: Coach Ron Rivera, OC Eric Bieniemy, WR Curtis Samuel, QB Jacoby Brissett, QB Sam Howell, CB Kendall Fuller, RB Antonio Gibson, S Kamren Curl, LB Docy Barton, T Charles Leno, G Nick Gates.
Key additions: Coach Dan Quinn, OC Kliff Kingsbury, DE Dorance Armstrong, LB Frankie Luvu, C Tyler Biadasz, G Nick Allegretti, RB Austin Ekeler, ILB Bobby Wagner, S Jeremy Reaves, QB Marcus Mariota, S Jeremy Chinn, DE Clelin Ferrell, DE Dante Fowler JR., CB Michael Davis, G Michael Dieter.
Key draft picks: QB Jayden Daniels, DL Jer’Zhan Newton, CB Mike Sainristil, TE Ben Sinnot, T Brandon Coleman, WR Luke McCaffrey.
Summary: Dan Qunn and Kliff Kingsbury. What could go wrong? Well, it can’t be much worse than the four wins that they had last year can it? This Commanders team, believe it or not, should have had more wins that the Giants. Anyways, there are a ton of changes with this team for 2024. I do not like the hiring of head coach Dan Quinn, and with Kingsbury, this feels as incohesive as the 2023 LA Chargers. One good thing that I will say for this team in 2024 is that they had opened the check book signing anyone with a pulse to a one year contract. The Jayden Daniels draft pick could turn out great, but if not, Maybe Sam Hartman can do something later in the season if he makes the team. I was pretty high on Sam pre-draft. Marcus Mariota will at least get the team started for the pre-season, and will hopefully be a good placeholder for Jayden early in the 2024 season. The Commies had a decent draft, but they missed out on some tackles to help protect their quarterback. They also are downgraded at edge rusher from last year going down from Montez Sweat and Chase Young to Dante Folwer Jr, and Dorance Armstrong. The Commanders last year were 25th in offensive EPA, and dead last at 32nd on defense. If it wasn’t for the Giants, I would say that this team should finish last in this division. I have the Commanders power rated to start he season below the Giants, but I will say that they have more upside with a quarterback in Jayden Daniels. Daniels is very fast, and can throw the deep ball with some pretty good accuracy. Christian McCaffery’s brother was drafted to this team at wide receiver from Rice University. He might be fun to watch early. I am going to remain slightly optimistic for this team, but they should not win more than six games.
My number: 5.32
Power Rating: -6.5
Action – None
*Blue color means hasn’t signed with a team
