Hey everyone just wanted to let you know how excited I am to be working with this great team. I am a huge follower of the NFL, Baseball, NCAA Football and Basketball. I look forward to helping readers find the most value in the market and adding more cash to your bankrolls. I wanted to examine the NFL season win totals and explain were the most value can be found. I will start in the NFC East and work around the league.
The NFC East will play the NFC South and AFC South this upcoming season. Not a good draw as both divisions will be very competitive especially the NFC South which had 3 playoff teams.
Dallas Cowboys, Over 8 (-115), Under 8 (-115)
The Dallas Cowboys walk into the 2018 NFL season as the 2nd best team on paper in the NFC East which isn’t saying much. They feature a great running back in Ezekiel Elliot and offensive line that could easily be considered the best in football. Dak Prescott looks to bounce back in his 3rd season without former go to options Jason Witten, and Dez Bryant. On defense Sean Lee and company will look to cut down on the amount of yards and points given up per game. In terms of the division, the Cowboys should have two losses to the Eagles and most likely will split the season series with the Redskins and Giants which puts them at 2-4. They have a rough out of division schedule for their road games this year; they will face the Falcons, Panthers, Seahawks, Texans and Colts. I expect the Cowboys to be able to control the clock with their run game against Seattle and the Panthers. Also, I believe they should finish no worse than 2-3. At home they get the Saints, Buccaneers, Lions, Jaguars and Titans. The Bucs should be a win for the Cowboys. The Lions, Saints, and Titans are toss-up games. They will not be favored against the Jaguars and should lose that game. If I had to lean I would go with the Under, however, I do not see too much value in this total.
New York Giants, Over 7 (-120), Under 7 (-110)
The New York Giants went into the 2018 off-season in full on rebuild mode. They fired Head Coach Ben McAdoo and General Manager Reese and have brought in Pat Shurmur as Head Coach and Dave Gettleman to serve as the Gm. Shurmur will look to make the Giants offense less one-dimensional with their new toy, Saquon Barkley, veteran Eli Manning along with a hopefully healthy Odell Beckham Jr. and Co. On the defensive side of the ball they will be switching to a 3-4 defense and look to turn around their defense that often times looked like it had given up during most of the games towards the end of the season. In terms of the schedule, the Giants got it bad. They will not be favored when facing the Eagles and could sneak out a win against the Cowboys and Redskins which leaves them sitting at best 2-4 but could easily end up at 1-5. At Metlife stadium, the Giants get the Buccaneers, Saints, Bears, Jaguars and Titans. This is a tough schedule for the Giants at home. They will most likely only be small favorites at home probably against the Buccaneers and Bears. At best they sneak out of this 2-3. The road schedule is even tougher having to go to Atlanta, Carolina, San Fran, Houston and Indy. I could see the Giants easily losing 4 of these games on the road. The UNDER 7 is more than lean and is STRONG PLAY as I see them struggling to get to 5 wins.
Philadelphia Eagles, Over 10 (-130), Under 10 (+100)
The NFL Champs are back and Carson Wentz should be healthy but if not, who cares right? They have Nick Foles and God all in one locker room. In all seriousness the Eagles didn’t lose much on offense beside Torrey Smith who they replace with Mike Wallace. LeGarrette Blount is off to Detroit which will allow Ajayi to own the backfield. Carson Wentz is expected to be healthy and most likely would have been the MVP if not for a season ending injury against the Rams. The Eagles should own their NFC East games and could sweep all of their games, and at worst only lose 1 game leaving them with 5 wins. At home, the Eagles will face the Falcons, Panthers, Vikings, Texans and Colts. The Eagles should be favored in every home game this season. The week one matchup against the Falcons could be a let-down spot as they reveal the championship banner to the fans. At worst the Eagles leave these games 3-2 but could go 4-1. On the road, the Birds will travel to New Orleans, Tampa, LA, England(against the Rams) and the Titans. The only game they may not be favored for is the LA Rams game. The Eagles should at worst escape 3-2 but could easily be 4-1. The Philadelphia Eagles easily should be a 12-4 or 13-3 team. There is a ton of value in the OVER 10 wins and I am recommending a play on it.
Washington Redskins, Over 6 (-140), Under 6 (+110)
The Washington Redskins head into the season facing more questions than answers. Head Coach Jay Gruden has a new man under center with Alex Smith now leading the team at quarterback. However, they face many question marks on the offensive side of the ball, how will rookie running back Derrius Guice do as a lead back in his rookie year? Can Jordan Reed stay healthy or will he spend more time on the sideline? Are Josh Doctson, Jamison Crowder and Paul Richardson enough? Only time will tell but one thing has been a constant about Alex Smith, he wins games and is 88-62-1 as a starter. This is very good compared to Kirk Cousins who was 26-30-1. On Defense, you guessed it, more question marks. On defense for them to succeed Ryan Kerrigan needs to keep playing like the three-time Pro Bowler that he is. On the defensive line, can Jonathan Allen come back from IR and play like the first rounder he was drafted as? In terms of the NFC East, they won’t be favored in their games versus the Eagles and I expect them to go 0-2. Splitting the season series with the Cowboys and Giants is right where I expect them to be. Leaving division play they should be 2-4. I do feel bad for the Redskins season ticket holders having to see the Falcons, Panthers, Packers, Texans and Colts. I don’t believe they will be favored in any of these games and at best are either 2-3, buy 1-4 or 0-5 seem way more likely. On the road the Redskins travel to New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Arizona, Jacksonville and Tennessee. Count New Orleans, and Jacksonville as losses and Tampa, Arizona and Tennessee are toss-up games. Best case 3-2, worst case 1-4, but most likely 2-3. If I had to lean it would be to the Over strictly to variance of expected win probability. However, it is just a lean. Pass on this one for more value to come in other divisions.
