NFC NORTH: This conference has to play the NFC South and the AFC South. This won’t be easy when looking at the teams in the NFC South and at the fact that New Orleans is a force and Tampa Bay has really improved now with Brady. The AFC South had 2 playoff teams last year and the Colts are looking to get back to what they were 2 years ago.
1. Green Bay Packers Win Total 9
Schedule: Medium – At large games vs the Eagles and 49ers
Key Losses: OT Bryan Bulaga, ILB Blake Martinez, OLB Kyler Fackrell, TE Jimmy Graham
Key additions: LB Christian Kirksey, OT Ricky Wagner, WR Devin Funchess
Whom they drafted: QB Jordan Love, RB AJ Dillon, IOL Jake Hansen, OT Jon Runyan
Summary: This team has a 3 game difference in their Pythagorean win total from last year and that really worries me. The good news is that they didn’t lose too much production from last year. The Packers once again whiffed on this draft by not getting Rodgers more wide receiver weapons and also ignored their D-Line issues after San Francisco exposed them. It is quite obvious to me that Matt Lefleur is trying to emulate the Ravens power offense by getting another running back and a running quarterback in the draft. Aaron Rodger’s may not be happy this year and I don’t know what to expect out of him. I have their wins at 9.9 so it looks close to a play but I just can’t do it under these circumstances.
Action: No Play
2. Minnesota Vikings – Win Total 9
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games vs the Cowboys and Seahawks
Key Losses: DT Linvil Joseph, CB Tre Wayans, DE Stephan Weatherly, DE Everson Griffen S Andrew Sendejo, CB Xavier Rhodes, WR Stefon Diggs.
Key Additions: DT Michael Pierce, G Josh Kline, DT Shamar Stephen
Whom they drafted: WR Justin Jefferson, CB Jeff Gladney, T Ezra Cleveland, CB Cameron Dantzler and a ton of other dudes
The Vikings have gotten a lot younger this year. They shed a ton of players but these players were also very good and I am not sure that having 15 picks can make up for them all. Stefon Diggs was a very big threat all defenses and Justin Jefferson will have to learn the position quickly. The Vikings were pretty healthy in general last year. My biggest worry is Kurt Cousins with the fact is that he could never play well out of his 1pm Eastern time slots. The Vikings should get their share of prime-time games this year. Minnesota will have a pretty hard schedule this year getting the Cowboys at home and having to travel to Seattle. They did over-achieve a bit last year but I certainly cannot bet the over and lean under the 9. My total is 8.7
Action – Lean under
3. Chicago Bears – Vegas Win Total 8
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games vs the the Rams and the Giants
Key Losses: QB Chase Daniel, ILB Nick Kwiatkowski, OLB Leonard Floyd, NT Nick Williams, FS Ha Ha Clinton Dix
Key Additions: QB Nick Foles, OLB Robert Quinn, TE Jimmy Graham, S Deon Bush, LB Martavious Mingo, WR Ted Ginn Jr
Whom they drafted: TE Cole Kmet, CB Jalen Johnson, WR Darnell Mooney
Summary: This Bears team really underachieved last year and it all started with their first game of the season home loss vs the Packers. They eventually rebounded back to .500 and could have been fine during the regular season had they not had the awful losses vs the Raiders and Chargers. I had to punish them a half game for barely beating the Vikings second string the last game of the season last year to get to 8 wins. The Bears had some bad injuries last year which helped contribute to their downfall with Hicks, Trubisky and Mack all missing some time, but they had decent backup options that filled in just fine. The obvious reason for the Bears demise was poor quarterback and offensive line play. Chicago could not establish a run to open up the pass. Their schedule last year was pretty hard ranking 7th last year against team efficiency and this year it looks medium easy only ranking 6th hardest in the league. You have to think that at least this year, the presence of Nick Foles will improve the QB position whether he starts or makes Mitch a better player. Khalil Mack is due for a big year after a disappointing 2019
Action – Lean over – I have the Bears wins at 9.5 if QB play improves
4. Detroit Lions – Win Total – 6.5
Schedule: – Medium Easy – At large games vs the Cardinals and the Redskins
Key losses: G Graham Glasgow, OLB Devin Kennard, DT Ashawn Robinson
Key additions: G Halapaulivaati Vaitai, LB Jaime Collins, CB Desmond Trufant, DT Nick Williams
Whom they drafted: CB Jeffrey Okudah, RB DeAndre Swift, Edge Julian Okwara, WR Quintez Cephus
Summary: The Lions did a lot of robbing Peter to pay Paul in the off-season but I do like their draft a lot. there was a huge Pythagorean discrepancy with them showing that they should have won 6 games instead of 3. Matt Stafford only played half of the season so I had to make a big injury accommodation to my win total numbers. Let’s look at the adjustments made in the off-season. This Lions team was flat out worst at opponent passing yards per game and they went and paid for Desmond Trufant and then drafted Jeffrey Okudah. Adding Jaimie Collins from NE and drafting Julian Okwara should help them get a few sacks. Is this finally the year that Matt Stafford puts it all together? I have their wins at 7.75 so this looks like a small play.
Action: Over 6.5 wins
