NFC NORTH: The division that I always start with obviously has the most uncertainty due to the Aaron Rogers situation. If Rogers leaves or at least doesn’t play for Green Bay, the win totals and futures within this division will all be greatly affected. For now, I have to assume that he does play and that means we can only make a bet if we like the “over” with any of these teams. The NFC North will have it quite difficult this year having to play the AFC North and the NFC West. I think that it is safe to say that the Bears or the Vikings will take a massive step forward if Rogers is gone so it might be worth it to bet the over as a free roll on one or both of these teams. Let’s get into some more details.
1. Green Bay Packers Win Total: NA
Packers Power Rating: 6
Schedule: Medium hard – At large games @ Kansas City, @ New Orleans, vs Washington
Key Losses: C Cory Linsley, RB Jamal Williams, LB Christian Kirksey, G Lane Taylor
Key additions: WR Devin Funchess who sat out last year, QB Blake Bortles
Who they drafted: CB Eric Stokes, C Josh Meyers, WR Amari Rogers and more
Summary: I have to assume that Rogers is going to be here and play a full season in order to do this properly. Obviously if he doesn’t play or leaves the team, things will change in this whole division. The Packers really didn’t lose much talent but they do have a pretty hard schedule playing the AFC North and the NFC West. The packers didn’t loss too much to free agency and they had a decent enough draft. They will be good against the pass again, but will struggle against the run. This team will need the lead in their tougher games if they can’t stop the run. I really do like coach Lafleur and even if Rogers is gone, there maybe some value on them. The Packers Pythagorean was a few games lower than their actual record but it’s all about the quarterback.
MY Season Number: 12.1
Action: No Play until we know more about Rodgers
2. Chicago Bears – Vegas Win Total 7.5
Chicago Bears Power ratings: 0
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games @ Las Vegas, @ Tampa Bay, vs Giants
Key Losses: OLB Roy Robertson-Harris, OT Charles Leno, CB Kyle Fuller, QB Mitch Trubisky,
Key Additions: QB Andy Dalton, OLB Jeremiah Attaochu, CB Desmond Trufant
Who they drafted: QB Justin Fields, OT Tevin Jenkins
Summary: The Bears were lucky to even make the playoffs last year due to the Cardinals losing to the Rams, but what I will say is that they were definitely the worst team that made it in. In saying that, I have to wonder if just getting rid of Mitch will make this defense care more in the end of their games. The big problem with the Bears is that they don’t have a good coach. Nagy can design plays but he consistently gets out-coached and unless he improves, the Bears could be a .500 team once again. The good news for the Bears is that their season win total is low for a 17 game schedule and if Rogers is gone, maybe chalk up an extra win for this team. I think that there is some upside for this Bears team being that the core of their defense is still in tact. I also like the fact that Andy Dalton is playing for his future along with Matt Nagy coaching for his job. Justin Fields is lurking and I expect him to become the starter at some point this season. Gonna be interesting on how this all plays out.
My season number: 9.1 wins
Action – Over 7.5 wins is the play – 1 star
3. Minnesota Vikings: Win Total 9
Vikings Power Rating: -.5
Schedule: Medium – At Large games vs @ LA Chargers, vs Dallas, @ Carolina
Key Losses: TE Kyle Rudolph, LT Riley Reiff, FS Anthony Harris, DE Ifeadi Odenigbo
Key Additions: DE Stephon Weatherly, DT Dalvin Thomlinson, S Xavier Woods, OLB Nick Vigil
Who they drafted: T Christian Darrisaw, QB Kellen Mond, LB Chazz Suratt, G Wyatt Davis
Summary: The Vikings are still getting younger and they made a lot of moves in free agency. My biggest worry as usual is Kirk Cousins at quarterback. He is the same guy who beats up on the smaller teams and crumbles when he gets into big pressure situations. You like that? I wonder if Kellen Mond is going to take over at some point being that he was drafted so high. The Vikings should have a very good offense this year but they will probably be a team that I will bet on to get margin off of the worst teams that they will play. There of course is some upside on the Vikings if Rogers is gone, but I can’t trust how bad that D was least year. I do like their coach and think he might be able to carry this team into the playoffs.
My season number: 8
Action – Lean under
4. Detroit Lions: Win Total – 5
Detroit’s power rating: -8
Schedule: – Hard – At large games @ Denver, Philadelphia, @ Atlanta
Key losses: QB Matt Stafford, Coach Matt Patricia, WR Kenny Golladay, WR Marvin Jones, K Matt Prater, ILB Jarrad Davis, RB Kerryon Johnson, WR Mohammed Sanu, ILB Reggie Ragland, CB Desmond Trufant and a ton more
Key additions: Coach Dan Campbell, QB Jared Goff, WR Breshard Perriman, RB Jamal Williams, and a bunch of bums
Who they drafted: OT Penei Sewell, DT Levi Onwuzerike, DT Alim McNeil and a bunch of hmmmm
Summary: New coach on their honeymoon? Not something that I am trying to bet the over on. Jared Goff might be the only motivated player this year. The Lions traded Matt Stafford and are obviously on a full rebuild. They didn’t seem to want to go after a quarterback in this draft which tells me that they might be planning this for next year. It must be quite weird being in Jared Goff’s shoes, but at the same time, he made his money and the Rams owned up to their mistakes. I actually wonder if the Lions want him to do really good in the first place. This might be a Jared Goff vs the world type season. The Lions have a very hard schedule this year and I don’t expect many wins even if they do put forth a large effort. This team be loaded with draft picks next year and I lean under the 5.
My season number: 4 wins
Action: lean under 5 wins
