NFC NORTH: The NFC North might be the worst division in the whole NFL this year thanks to massive regression from the Chicago Bears and the bad play last year of the Detroit Lions. The Packers sit a top of everything for now, but the Vikings are going to make a case this year if Kevin O’Connell can get them going. There is two brand new coaching staffs in this division creating a lot of uncertainty. The good news is that the NFC North has it easier getting the NFC East and the AFC East in their schedule. The division should be able to feed off of the Jets, Commanders, and the Giants, but there is a chance that the bottom of this division could be as bad or worse.
1. Green Bay Packers Win Total: 11
2021 Wins: 13
Pythagorean Wins: 9.79
Schedule: Medium – At large games vs LA Rams, @ Tampa Bay and vs Tennessee
Schedule last year: Medium Hard
Key Losses: WR Davanta Adams, WR Marquez Valdez Scantling, Edge Za’Darious Smith, G Lucas Patrick, CB Kevin King
Key additions: WR Sammy Watkins, DT Jarren Reid, P Pat O’Donnell,
Who they drafted: ILB Quay Walker, DL Devonte Wyatt, WR Christian Watson and a bunch of dudes.
Summary: I see that Rogers should be somewhat happy now that he got super-paid again, but it did cost his team Davanta Adams who had to be traded to the Raiders along with a few other studs. Green Bay lost a decent amount of talent this year to free agency, but at least Za’Darius Smith only played 2 games last year anyways. One thing that I really like from the Packers is their draft. Green Bay got the wide receiver that I thought that they might pick in the 1st round and ended up scoring him with their 3rd pick in the draft. The Green and Gold also got the best linebacker in the draft in Quay Walker, and maybe even the best three technique in Georgia’s Devonte Wyatt. Packers might not miss a beat if their receiving core re-develops. Also, keep in mind that TE Robert Tonyan will be back from injury.
MY Season Number: 11.4
Action: No Play
Packers Power Rating: 5.75
2. Minnesota Vikings:
Win Total 9
2021 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 7.96
Schedule: Medium – At large games vs @ Philadelphia, vs Arizona, vs Indianapolis
Schedule Last year: Medium Hard
Key Losses: Coach Mike Zimmer and staff. TE Tyler Conklin, C Mason Cole, S Xavier Woods, OLB Nick Vigil
Key Additions: Coach Kevin O’Connell, DC Ed Donatell, Edge Za’Darious Smith, DT Harrison Phillips, ILB Jordan Hicks, G Chris Reed, T Jesse Davis
Who they drafted: S Lewis Cine, CB Andrew Booth, G Ed Engram and a bunch of dudes.
Summary: Minnesota will be a very interesting team to me. New head coach Kevin O’Connell had enough time to learn under Sean McVey of the Rams. The problem is that we still remember the 3-13 season that he had as OC with the 2019 Redskins. Was his time with McVey enough to turn the corner? New DC Ed Donatell is a career assistant but has also been in the Fangio System since 2009. Lots of upside here. The Vikings drafted defensive secondary help in Georgia safty Lewis Cine, and Clemson’s cornerback Andrew Booth. Let’s not forget what they got in edge rusher Zadarious Smith from free agency. Love that! Also, Daniel Hunter should finally be healthy and he missed most of last year’s season so that will be huge. It’s all about what we get with QB Kirk Cousins who tends to disappoint, but this is the year he has to make it happen with a plethora of weapons. I will be cautiously optimistic on this team and I think that they make the playoffs.
My season number: 9.48
Action – Lean over but bet them to make the playoffs
Vikings Power Rating: 2
3. Detroit Lions: Win Total – 6.5 juiced to the over
2021 Wins: 3.5
Pythagorean Wins: 5.24
Schedule: – Easy – At large games vs Seattle, @ NY Giants, vs Jacksonville
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: OLB Jalen Reeves-Mabin
Key additions: S Deshawn Elliot, WR DJ Chark, LB Chris Board
Who they drafted: Edge, Aiden Hutchinson, WR Jameson Williams, Edge Josh Pachal
Summary: Year two for the fiery coach Dan Campbell. The Lions were very quiet in free agency in both gaining, and losing guys. According to football outsiders, this Lions team was the 3rd most injured last year and I expect some positive regression. One thing that worries me some is that even though this was a pretty good draft class for Detroit, they really missed out in getting some good linebackers, and another needed defensive tackle to help stop the run in which they ranked 25th in opponent rush EPA and 28th in rushing yards per game. They also won’t get Alabama Wide Receiver Jameson Williams until closer to October which won’t help them at the start. The good news for this team is that they should have a pretty easy fourth place schedule with fellow tomato cans such as Seattle, The NY Giants, and Jacksonville to play against. The Lions really should have won about 5.5 games last year according to their Pythagorean win total. I think they get about 7 wins this year. Goff better make something of those make shift receivers until Jameson is up and running.
My season number: 6.87 wins
Action: Lean over 6.5 wins
Detroit’s power rating: – -4.5
4. Chicago Bears – Vegas Win Total 6.5
2021 Wins: 6
Pythagorean Wins: 6.56
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games San Francisco, @ Atlanta, Houston
Key Losses: Coach Matt Nagy, LB Danny Trevathian, Edge Kahlil Mack, DT Akiem Hicks, G James Daniels, WR Allen Robinson, QB Andy Dalton, WR Jakeem Grant, DT Bilal Nichols
Key Additions: Coach Matt Eberflus, DT Justin Jones, QB Trevor Simeon, WR Byron Pringle
Who they drafted: CB Kyler Gordon, S Jaquan Brisker, WR Velus Jones and a bunch of dudes
Summary: No team has went through quite as many big changes as the Bears did this year. This team has a new coaching staff, new GM, young quarterback and they traded the face of the franchise in Khalil Mack. I would really love to be optimistic for this team, but it’s hard to do so when the guys at the top are still the same guys that failed over the last 50 or so years. The Bears got rid of their best offensive piece in Allen Robinson and quarterback Andy Dalton who basically ended up being just a distraction. Six wins is what the Bears had last year and I am not optimistic that they can even match that with much less to work with. The Bears signed a bunch of below average guys in free agency, and drafted a bunch of no-names. This Bears team could be the Houston Texans from last year. I see a very low floor and a low ceiling here. I have them at 5.73 wins.
My season number: 5.73 wins
Action – wait
Chicago Bears Power rating: -6.5
