NFC NORTH: Last year, the NFC north was supposed to be one of the worst divisions in football. My oh my was that assessment incorrect as this division pumped out two playoff teams in the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions. Even the Bears finished out with seven wins. The Vikings had some bad luck losing Kirk Cousins mid-season and still were able to put up seven. This year, the Packers and the Lions are both favored to repeat into the playoffs. Now, most analysts look at this division as quite strong. Every team looks like they had improved minus maybe the Vikings. The NFC North plays the AFC South which is ok, but they also play the NFC West which is just medium this year due to questions from the Cardinals and the Seahawks. Let’s see how this division shapes up.
Divisional Futures: Lions +150 – Packers +210 – Bears +265 – Vikings +1000
1. Detroit Lions –
Vegas Win Total: 10.5 juiced to the over at -115
2023 Wins: 12
Pythagorean Wins: 10.16
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games vs Tampa Bay, @Dallas, vs Buffalo.
Schedule last year: Medium Hard
Key Losses: G Jonah Jackson, S CJ Gardner-Johnson, WR Josh Reynolds, DT Benito Jones, S Will Harris, CB Cam Sutton, G Halapoulivaati Vaitai
Key additions: DT DJ Reeder, CB Amik Robertson, DE Marcus Davenport, G Kevin Zietler
Who they drafted: CB Terrion Arnold, CB Ennis Rakestraw, T Giovanni Manu, S iIone Vaki
Summary: The Lions were ferocious last year during a strong season for the NFC. One has to be think that they are still kicking themselves for that improbably playoff choke when up by double digits in the 2nd half in San Francisco. The Lions rush defense took a huge step forward last year ranking 4th in rush EPA, but their pass defense stayed bad ranking 25th in pass EPA. We could see that the Lions are trying to fix that with the corners that they had just drafted. The Lions offense was great for most of the year ranking 8th in EPA per play. They lost what they could afford to lose, but had a very good draft getting two top cornerbacks and my top rated safety. There was no big free agent splash, but the Lions didn’t lose a big star either. Marcus Davenport should be a good addition across from Aidan Hutchinson. The Lions are ready to win right now, and they should start the season guns a blaze-in.
MY Season Number: 11.08
Action: No Play
Detroit Lions Power Rating: 5.25
2. Green Bay Packers –
Vegas Win Total – 10.5 juiced to the under -155
2023 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 9.44
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games vs Philadelphia (Neutral), vs Miami, vs New Orleans
Schedule Last year: Easy
Key Losses: RB Aaron Jones, G Jon Runyan, S Darnell Savage, T Yoshi Nijman, S Jonathan Owens
Key Additions: S Xavier McKinney, RB Josh Jacobs, K Greg Joseph
Who they drafted: T Jordan Morgan, LB Edgerrin Cooper, S Javon Bullard, RB Marshawn Lloyd, LB Ty’Ron Hopper and a bunch of dudes.
Summary: The Packers were once again saved by coaching as this team went on a tear at the end of the season to make the playoffs. In saying that, the Packers remained mostly healthy as the only real injuries were to a few wide receivers and RB Aaron Jones for a spell. I think that coaching could play a huge part in this team’s success for 2024, but I am not buying the hype on this team. The Packers ranked 10th in rush EPA and 4th in Pass EPA which was impressive and a testament to a good offense, but I do not like the swap of Aaron Jones for Josh Jacobs. Jones is so much more versatile, and Jacobs is basically just a downhill non-pass catching running back. The defense last year was the issue ranking in the 20s in both pass and rush EPA categories. Maybe the packers strike gold in this draft, but I am concerned for the weak linebacking crew and the aging edge rushing positions. The schedule at least worked out quite well for the pack as all of their at large games turned out either neutral or at home. I will look at the under if it remains 10.5, but I will wait to try and find less juice.
My season number: 9.22 wins
Action: Play the under but wait.
Green Bay’s power rating: – 3.25
3. Chicago Bears –
Vegas Win Total 8.5 juiced to over -165
2023 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 7.79
Schedule: Easy – At large games vs Carolina, @Washington, vs New England
Schedule Last year: Hard
Key Losses: WR Darnell Mooney, Edge Yannick Ngakoue, DT Justin Jones, G Cody Whitehair, G Dan Feeney, S Eddie Jackson, RB D’Onta Foremanm,
Key Additions: OC Shane Waldron, Edge Montez Sweat 1/2 of last year, RB D’Andre Swift, FS Kevin Byard, TE Gerald Everett, S Jonathan Owens, G Coleman Shelton
Who they drafted: QB Caleb Williams, WR Rome Odunze, OT Kiran Amegadjie, P Tory Taylor, Edge Austin Booker
Summary: Huge changes for Da Bears this season. After all of these years, the Bears have their best chance at finally having a good franchise quarterback with their stolen draft pick courtesy of the Panthers in Caleb Williams. Chicago also added to their Arsenals in drafting the second best wide receiver in the draft in Rome Odunze. Last year, this Bears team ranked decent in Rush EPA at 9th, but we also have to assume that many of those yards were courtesy of Justin Fields and his great legs. What came with those legs was a poor throwing ability ranking 24th in drop-back EPA. I was surprised to see it even that high. When Fields was in position to win a big game, he would hand the ball to the other team. Bear fans hope that Williams has some of the scrambling ability that Caleb has shown at USC for some continuity into the 2024 season. The Bears defense took a few steps forward from last year ranking 7th in Rush EPA and 19th in pass EPA. They did shed some talent, but they also drafted some dudes that might be able to fill in. The Justin Jones loss could hurt the worst as he did a good job clogging up the middle. The Bears did upgrade their secondary but bringing in safeties Kevin Byard and Jonathan Owens. I am still concerned with the offensive line as the Bears somewhat ignored it in the draft, but let’s hope the top guys can stay healthy. I am also not sure that Eberflus is a good NFL coach. Lots to prove for Da Bears this year and my season win total is 9.4 mainly based on an easy schedule.
My season number: 9.4 wins
Action – wait
Chicago Bears Power rating: 0
4. Minnesota Vikings –
Vegas Win Total: 6.5 juiced to the over -145
2023 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 8.68
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games @ NY Giants, vs NY Jets*, vs Atlanta
Schedule Last year: Medium Hard
Key Losses: QB Kirk Cousins, Edge Danielle Hunter, DE DJ Wonnum, ILB Jordan Hicks, DE Marcus Davenport, DE Dean Lowry, WR KJ Osborne, G Austin Schottman, QB Joshua Dobbs, RB Alexander Mattison, G Dalton Risner, RB Cam Akers and a bunch of scrubs.
Key Additions: DE Jonathan Greenard, LB Blake Cashman, Edge Andrew Van Ginkle, QB Sam Darnold, RB Aaron Jones, CB Shaquill Griffin, DT Jerry Tillery, G Dan Feeney.
Who they drafted: QB JJ McCarthy, Edge Dallas Turner, and a bunch of prayers.
Summary: The Vikings had 13 wins in 2022 with a Pythagorean win total of 8.36. This year they had 7 wins with a Pythag of 8.68. This is so fun to see. Minnesota massively overachieved in 2022, and yet greatly underachieved in 2023. For 2024, the turnover on this team is immense from a defensive perspective. Shedding three good defensive ends and their best LB and edge rusher is rough for starters. This team at least did sign some free agents to cover a lot of this. The Vikings clearly had a lot of bad injury luck with Kirk Cousins going out, but that doesn’t really matter anymore does it? Justin Jefferson missed some games as well last year, and he definitely wasn’t the same with no decent quarterback. Even with the good signing of Aaron Jones, this team is thin at Running back with Ty Chandler as the second option. The Vikings were very average at defense last year, so it will be interesting to see if it can hold up after losing Danielle Hunter and DJ Wonnum. The JJ McCarthy pick wasn’t my favorite quarterback of the bunch. I think that he was over-drafted, but here we are looking at him to quickly take over after Sam Darnold messes up. If Justin Jefferson stays, that certainly helps things, but I think the first year might be rough for JJ. Two big things about the Vikings schedule. For one, they get a huge rest advantage at net positive +12 days rest. The bad thing is that they lose a home game vs the Jets in London. I think that this team could muster up 7 wins this year.
My season number: 7.09
Action – None
Vikings Power Rating: -2
Best Bet – Lions to win the NFC North +150 – .5 stars
