The NFC South has an easier road or set of schedules than they did last year. This division has to play the NFC East which is good for them being that the NFC East was so bad last year, and the AFC East which also could be good unless the Jets and Patriots take a huge step forward. Atlanta has a new coach in Arthur smith who was offensive coordinator for the Titans. Tampa Bay is coming off of their Super Bowl win while the Saints will have some new faces in 2021. This might be the most interesting division in football with Tom Brady looking to repeat while the Saints are not sure who will be their quarterback for the future.
1. New Orleans Saints – Vegas Win Total 9 juiced to the over
New Orleans Power Rating: 0
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large games vs Green Bay, @ Seattle and @ Tennessee
Key Losses: QB Drew Breese, DE Trey Hendrickson, LB Kwon Alexander, CB Janoris Jenkins, DT Sheldon Rankins, WR Emanual Sanders, TE Jared Cook and a bunch of dudes
Key additions: TE Nick Vannet and a few others
Key draft picks: DE Peyton Turner, QB Ian Book, LB Pete Werner
Summary: Yikes! This team lost the most players out of any decent to great team from last season. Starting out with Drew Breese who has been their leader for 20 years, this loss will be substantial. Not only that, the Saints have no money and had to shed a ton of weight this year. The only good news is that they have potentially the easiest at large schedule for a number 1 team getting the Packers who may or may not have Rogers, the Titans who are very venerable, and Seattle who has some serious defensive issues. Still, I do not see how this team will recover unless Jameis Winston somehow quits throwing interceptions and becomes the quarterback prospect that many of us thought he could be. Taysom Hill is choice number 2 and he will only be a dink and dunk type of quarterback and defenses will soon shut that down. My bold prediction is that Ian Book takes the team over at some point in this season. This team is looking at the under in my opinion for their season win total but I wouldn’t be completely shocked I suppose if Sean Payton pulls some wins out of his ass this year.
My number is: 7.9 wins
Action: Under 9 wins
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 11.5 juiced to the over (-130)
Tampa Bay Power Rating: 7
Schedule: – Medium Easy – At large games vs the Bears @ Indianapolis and @ The Rams
Key losses: OT Joe Haeg and that’s about it.
Key additions: RB Giovani Bernard and that’s about it
Key draft picks: Edge Joe Tyron, QB Kyle Trask, LB KJ Britt, LB Robert Hainsey
Summary: Last year I wrote that Tom Brady was the biggest thing that has every happened to Tampa. Was I wrong? This team didn’t lose anybody and will be poised for a chance at winning the Super Bowl in 2022. The crazy thing for me is that this team had the hardest schedule on paper and they were able to retain all of their players after winning the super bowl! That never really happens. Either way, with the talent that this team retained, I can see them winning plenty of games this year if they want to and Tom Brady did mention that he would like to go through a season undefeated. The thing that worries me some is that I don’t even know if this team really cares about the regular season all that much if/when they get that first loss. I honestly think that the Bucs might be just fine with limping into the playoffs where Brady then turns himself into a werewolf and beats the crap out of all of his competition. I also worry about the super bowl let down so I can’t make this play.
My Number is: 13.25
Action: Lean over
3. Carolina Panthers – Win total is 7.5 juiced to the under (-130)
Carolina Power Rating: -1.25
Schedule: Medium – At large games vs Minnesota, @ Arizona, @ Houston
Key losses: WR Curtis Samuel, RB Mike Davis, DE Stephon Weatherly
Key additions: QB Sam Darnold, G Pat Elflain, T Cameron Erving, DE Morgan Fox, LB Haasan Reddick, CB AJ Bouye, ILB Denzel Perryman, and more
Key draft picks: CB Jaycee Horn, WR Terrance Marshall, OT Brady Christianson, TE Tommy Tremble, RB Chuba Hubbard
Summary: It’s the second year for Matt Rhule and the Carolina Panthers and wow did this team make a splash in the offseason. The most obvious play was getting Sam Darnold in a trade with the Jets who offensive coordinator Joe Brady must have been high on. It looks like the Teddy Bridgewater experiment didn’t last long did it? Carolina has spent so much money that I have to think that this team has improved from their 5 win season last year. Carolina’s Pythagorean win total was closer to a 7 last year and we need to factor that in. This season all depends on Sam Darnold and I think that if any coach can get this kid’s confidence back, it is Matt Rhule. I am excited to see what this team has in the tank and let’s hope that Christian McCaffery remains healthy this season.
My Number: 8.69
Action: Find a 7 and play the over
4. Atlanta Falcons – Win total is 7.5 juiced to the over (-140)
Atlanta’s Power Rating: -2.75
Schedule: Medium – At large vs San Francisco, @ Detroit and @ Jacksonville
Key losses: Coach Dan Quinn, RB Todd Gurley, C Alex Mack, SS Keanu Neil, G Justin McCray, DE Charles Harris, FS Ricardo Allen, (WR Julio Jones is possible)
Key additions: Coach Arthur Smith, RB Mike Davis, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, S Ed Harris, QB AJ McCarron, OLB Barkevious Mingo
Key draft picks: TE Kyle Pitts, S Richie Grant, OT Jaylen Mayfield and a bunch of hmmmm.
Summary: Our Atlanta season win total under 7.5 for plus money hit last year with ease being that the dirty birds only won 4 games. On the other hand, Atlanta might have been the least fortunate team of the 2020 season being that their adjusted wins were 4.25 (adjusted for a 17 game season) while their adjusted Pythagorean win total was a monster 7.92. I thought that I would be betting the Falcons just because of that until I saw the actual line at 7.5 juiced to the over and saw what this team didn’t do in the draft and free agency. The Falcons obviously drafted what many call the best player in the draft in tight end Kyle Pitts but what is the difference in adding another pass catcher when you were loaded with them anyways and you really didn’t do anything to fix your defense. Now that Julio Jones has been traded, isn’t this just another robbing Peter to pay Paul situation? I think Atlanta will try and run the ball a lot more than they have in the past with the former Titans offensive coordinator now Coach in Arthur Smith, however, I do not understand how Mike Davis is going to replace a guy like Todd Gurley. The RBs are relatively weak on this team. The move is not an upgrade. This will be a honeymoon year for new coach Arthur Smith so I and I do not expect much out of this team minus some big offense in domes and some terrible defense in general.
My Number: 6.59
Action: Lean under
