NFC South: The South will certainly be an interesting division this year. The long time powerful New Orleans Saints will have a new coach while Tom Brady will be playing under coach Todd Bowls who gets a second life coaching with the consensus GOAT at QB after some ugly failures as head coach for the NY Jets. The NFC South plays the NFC West and the AFC North which feels somewhat medium to me. The at large games will be tough on top and easy on the bottom looking at the discrepancy in the NFC North and NFC East. I was right about the Saints last year, yet very wrong about the Panthers. Let’s see what 2022 has to offer.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers –
Vegas Win Total: 11.5 juiced to the under -120
2021 Wins: 13
Pythagorean Wins: 11.6
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games @ Dallas, vs Green Bay, vs Kansas City.
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: Coach Bruce Ahriens G Alex Cappa, S Jordan Whitehead, RB Ronald Jones, Edge Jason Pierre Paul, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Richard Sherman, TE Rob Gronkowski, G Shaq Mason, TE OJ Howard
Key additions: Coach Todd Bowles, S Keanu Neal, WR Russell Gage, DT Akiem Hicks
Key draft picks: DL Logan Hall, T Luke Goedeke, RB Raachad White, and a bunch of bums
Summary: This team is falling apart. I know the man who never quits in Tom Brady decided to comeback after a month of daycare, but what this team lost seems very significant. I could be wrong, but it really does sound like Gronk might stay retired. Also, before I forget, sorry, but how the hell did average at best WR Russell Gage get a tree year 30 million dollar contract from this team? I just do not see how you are going to replace all of this production on defense even with new Head Coach Todd Bowles making decisions. This team still has great players at some of the main skill positions and defense, but if they get injured, the depth of the Buccaneers seems very thin. I do not like how they drafted and I do not like them losing their head coach. The good news at least is that this team will have an easier schedule with how poor Atlanta and Carolina has looked as of late. Brady will still be Brady, but I can see a much better chance for failure than success this season.
My Number is: 10.8
Tampa Bay Power Rating: 3.75
Action: Strong lean under
2. New Orleans Saints –
Vegas Win Total: 8 juiced to the over -130
2021 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 8.93
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games vs Minnesota, vs Las Vegas, @Philadelphia
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key Losses: Coach Sean Payton, LT Terren Armstead, QB Trevor Siemian, ILB Kwon Alexander, SS Jeff Heath
Key additions: Coach Dennis Allen (promoted), S Marcus Williams, S Tyrann Mathieu, WR Jarvis Landry, SS Daniel Sorensen, QB Andy Dalton
Key draft picks: WR Chris Olave, LT Trevor Penning and a bunch of dudes
Summary: The Saints were interesting last year to say the least. I was absolutely floored that they got to 9 wins ,and their Pythag number at 8.93 really backs it up. This team was pretty injured last year after Jameis Winston went down during game seven, and they really had to overachieve to be over .500. Having nine wins on a first place schedule was impressive to me, and Michael Thomas wasn’t even playing. I am normally concerned with coaching changes and all, but you can’t discount the fact that new coach Dennis Allen has been in the Sean Payton program there since 2015. Another piece of continuity is their offensive coordinator. Pete Carmichael will stay as the team’s offensive coordinator on new head coach Dennis Allen’s staff which is huge for the team to progress into the 2022 season. My two biggest concern remains in how dedicated Jameis Winston is to the team as well as the fact that even though there is continuity, it is still not Sean Payton back leading the way. The Saints are a legit sleeper in this division and I will be taking their win total over 8.
My number is: 10.93 wins
Action: Over 8 wins -130 – 1 star
New Orleans Power Rating: 3
3. Carolina Panthers –
Vegas Win Total: 6 juiced to the under -125
2021 Wins: 5
Pythagorean Wins: 6.43
Schedule: Medium – vs NY Giants, vs Denver, @Detroit
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: OLB Haason Reddick, CB Stephon Gilmore, DT DaQuan Jones, C Matt Paradis, QB Cam Newton, CB AJ Bouye, G John Miller
Key additions: G Austin Corbett, S Xavier Woods, OLB Damien Wilson, C Bradley Boezeman
Key draft picks: OT Ikem Ekwonu, QB Matt Corral, LB Brandon Smith and just a few more.
Summary: It looks to me that Matt Rhule is on borrowed time right now, and similar to the Falcons, It is hard to see this team competing this year. What I do like is the fact that they still was able to draft a top three quarterback in Matt Corral by waiting until the 3rd round, but I am also not certain that offensive lineman Ikem Ekwonu was the best player at his position at 1st pick like all of the media pundits stated. The problem for the Panthers is that they needed way more picks to fix that horrid offensive line, but I at least like the fact that they got a center and a decent guard in free agency. So the market believes that this team is better than the falcons and it is probably correct. At least this team’s Pythagorean win total at 6.43 was higher than the Falcons at 5.16. We have to remember that this team still has a good WR core led by DJ Moore as well as good running backs in CMC, and Chubba Hubbard. It would be fun if Matt Corral and Desmond Ritter of the Falcons both get the starting jobs by mid-season to see which quarterback has the better chance of longevity. If Matt Corral turns out and can take the starting QB position over, there is a slight chance that this team can make some noise.
My Number: 6.22
Carolina Power Rating: -5.75
Action: Lean over
4. Atlanta Falcons –
Vegas Win total: 5 Juiced to the under
2021 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 5.16
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games vs LA Chargers, vs Chicago, @Washington
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: QB Matt Ryan, LB Foyesade Olukun, WR Russell Gage, S Josh Harris, TE Hayden Hurst, DE Dante Fowler, RB Mike Davis, DE Johnathan Bullard
Key additions: QB Marcus Mariota, CB Casey Howard, DE Lorenzo Carter, LB Rashaan Evans, RB Damien Williams
Key draft picks: WR Drake London, Edge Arnold Ebiketie, QB Desmond Ridder and a bunch of Dudes.
Summary: Atlanta’s trade of Matt Ryan pretty much tells you where this team is at this year. Rebuild central! But as for rebuilding, I think it was pretty dumb to start with a WR who might cost you more later than a good defensive tackle or guard. I am going to be completely honest here. This team is going to suck. I didn’t like their draft at all, nor did I like their free agency. Marcus Mariota will try to make some plays on his feet, but the defense will eventually get to him. I think that Desmond Ridder has a shot to be a good Quarterback, but he will struggle behind this offensive line and may not get a fair shot. Coach Arthur Smith is a play-action type football coach and they do not have the WRs or the offensive line to make that happen.
My Number: 3.58
Atlanta’s Power Rating: -8
Action: Strong Lean under but no rush to bet it.
