NFC South: The NFC South was a game of Yahtzee as I mentioned last year. The two most common bets were the Falcons to make the playoffs and the Saints to win the division. Neither happened of course as the Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield had stolen the show. This year, the Falcons decided to get a quarterback and a new coach which propelled them to be favorites to win this division. I am not entirely convinced. The NFC South plays the NFC East and the AFC West for their 2024 schedules. I would call that pretty easy as the bottom teams of both of these conferences are painfully bad at playing football. Not to say that this conference is all that good either, I think that there could be a few surprises this year. Let’s dig in.
Divisional Futures: (DK) Falcons -105, Buccaneers +295, Saints +330, Panthers +1100
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers –
Vegas Win Total: 8.5 juiced to the under -150
2023 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 8.71
Schedule: Medium – At large games @Detroit, vs Baltimore, vs San Francisco
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: OC Dave Canales, Edge Shaquil Barret, LB Devin White, G Nick Leverett, SS Ryan Neal
Key additions: S Jordan Whitehead, G Ben Bredson
Key draft picks: T Graham Barton, Edge Chris Braswell, S Tykee Smith, WR Jalen McMillan
Summary: I never had a ton of respect for Todd Bowles until last year. The team with the worst odds to win the division was the Buccaneers, and they pulled it off at 8-1. Not only that, they smacked the Eagles right in the mouth during their first playoff game. Baker Mayfield has proven that he can start in the NFL, and having guys like WR Mike Evans and TE Cade Otten certainly helped his cause. In saying all of this, Tampa bay was a very average team in a weak division. They did one thing good and one thing bad on both sides of the ball. On offense they ranked 8th in pass EPA, but only 27th in rush EPA. On defense, nose tackle Vita Vea was injured for a spell, but when he came back, the rush defense was fantastic finishing at 5th in rush EPA, yet against the pass only 22nd in pass EPA. For the 2024 season, the Bucs are once again fortunate to be in the NFC South, yet they do get the 1st place at large games. I like how this team shed some of the older players, yet they are still somewhat of an older team especially on defense. The biggest loss might be offensive coordinator Dave Canales to Carolina. Liem Coen replaces Canales. He has some good experience with the LA Rams under Sean McVay. Just a lot of wait and see here, and I would rather bet the Buccaneers to make the playoffs or win the division instead of the win total over.
My number is: 8.86 wins
Action: No Play but might bet them to win the division or make the playoffs.
Tampa Bay’s Power Rating: 1
2. Atlanta Falcons –
Vegas Win total: 9.5 juiced to the under -135
2023 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 7.67
Schedule: Easy – At large games vs Pittsburgh, vs Seattle, @ Minnesota
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: Coach Arthur Smith, TE Jonnu Smith, RB Cordarrell Patterson, Edge Bud Dupree, CB Jeff Okudah, C Matt Hennessy, DE Calais Campbell
Key additions: Coach Raheem Morris, OC Zac Robinson, QB Kirk Cousins, DE Darnell Mooney, TE Charlie Woerner,
Key draft picks: QB Michael Penix, DL Ruke Ohorhoro and a bunch of prayers.
Summary: It’s hard to not be angry with this team. The dirty birds had everything handed to them last year minus a coach with a brain and an NFL quarterback. This year, the front office might have taken care of some of that with the signing of Kirk Cousins at quarterback and bringing in a new coach in Raheem Morris. Am I confident? No, not really. Morris had a stint coaching before in the NFL that became a total disaster. In other news, there is another guy in this division coming from the Sean McVay tree in Zac Robinson as offensive coordinator. Man, I really need to get a Job under Sean McVay! Anyways, It is hard to predict how this team will do with all of the changes. All of the dinking and dunking in a bad division boosted this team up to 22nd in Pass EPA, but did horrible rushing the ball only ranking 28th in Rush EPA with Bijan Robinson. Defenses figured out to stack the box against this poor offense. The Falcons in the offseason only picked up a few guys, but the biggest boneheaded move was to draft a 24 year old quarterback with the 8th pick in the draft in Michael Penix. Why draft an older guy when you just signed someone for four years? The Falcons were great against the run ranking 1st in defensive rush EPA, but they were not good against the pass ranking 22nd in defensive pass EPA. They had the easiest schedule last year and couldn’t even muster up 8 wins. This year, the Falcons get by far the easiest schedule again, and this is why I cannot fade this team. 9.84 wins is my number, but I still have them slightly below average in my power ratings to start the season.
My Number: 9.84
Atlanta’s Power Rating: -.5
Action: None
3. New Orleans Saints –
Vegas Win Total: 7.5 Juiced Towards the over -120
2023 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 10
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games vs Cleveland, vs LA Rams, @ Green Bay
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key Losses: OC Pete Carmichael Jr, DE Malcolm Roach, QB Jameis Winston, G Andrus Peat, CB Lonnie Johnson, DT PJ Mustipher, CB Isaac Yiadom, LB Zach Baun.
Key additions: OC Klint Kubiak, DE Chase Young, WR Dedrick Wilson, ILB Willie Gay, T Oli Udoh, G Lucas Patrick.
Key draft picks: T Taliese Fuaga, CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, QB Spencer Rattler, LB Jaylan Ford
Summary: The Saints were another team that had some underachievers. Last season, this team somehow missed the playoffs while racking up nine wins. They benefitted greatly from a super easy schedule, yet faltered whenever they played a team with a pulse. I do like that they finished their season winning four out of five games. For 2024, this team has a pretty easy schedule minus a net-rest disadvantage of -10 days. Perhaps, the biggest change for this team was to fire their offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. who has been with the team for 18 years. He slithered back to Sean Payton in Denver as an offensive assistant. The bringing in of Klint Kubiak as the new OC might be an improvement, and especially if he has learned anything last season from Kyle Shanahan as his passing game coordinator. The Saints had a Pythagorean win total of 10 last year and should have taken the division. I feel like a broken record saying that, but their win total of 7.5 should be achievable this season. The biggest worry continues to be the quarterback position with Derek Carr, but he might be at least good enough to get this team into the playoffs in a weak division for 2024. I am going to start this team off as average and go from there, but I like them up to 9 wins and should go over that win total.
My number is: 9 wins
Action: Over 7.5 wins can be found for -120 if you shop.
New Orleans Power Rating: 0
4. Carolina Panthers –
Vegas Win Total: 5.5 juiced to the over -115
2023 Wins: 2
Pythagorean Wins: 3.92
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games vs Cincinnati, @ Chicago, vs Arizona
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: Coach Frank Reich, DE Brian Burns, LB Frankie Luvu, DE Yetur Gross-Matos, CB Shaquill Griffin, S Jeremy Chin, WR DJ Chark, CB CJ Henderson.
Key additions: Coach Dave Canales, OC Brad Idzik, G Robert Hunt, G Damien Lewis, DE A’Shawn Robinson, DE Jadeveon Clowney, ILB Josey Jewell, DE D.J. Wonnum, CB Dane Jackson, T Yosh Nijman, S Jordan Fuller.
Key draft picks: WR Xavier Legette, RB Jonathan Brooks, LB Trevin Wallace, TE Ja’Tavion Sanders.
Summary: Thanks to the Carolina Panthers, the Falcons are not the most embarrassing franchise of 2023. I would like to say that there are a lot of changes going on in this organization, but constant changes seem to be the norm for this team. Let’s face it, the outlook for the Panthers goes through quarterback Bryce Young with a new coaching staff. They turned over a lot of players and made some very dumb drafting and free agency decisions. The Brian Burns trade was god awful. I would think that there is something internally that we do not know. The two draft picks of a wide receiver and a running back was highly questionable. This is not how you rebuild a team. The Panthers had plenty of opportunity to start drafting trenches and they instead went to the skill positions. If there is any good to say for this team, it’s that they weren’t quite as bad last season as their 2 win record portrayed. The Panthers ranked 29th in offensive EPA and 26th on defense. They could not stop the run, but they ranked 17th in defensive Pass EPA. In saying all of that, this is still another transitional year for Carolina, and I can’t imagine them winning many games.
My Number: 4.96
Carolina Power Rating: -8.5
Action: Lean under
Best Bet: Saints over 7.5 wins -120
*Blue color means hasn’t signed with a team
