Welcome back hope you all enjoyed my last preview of the NFC East season win totals. In this article we will be breaking down the NFC South. This will be an exciting conference to follow all season long. Every team in this division has one thing in common and it is veteran leaders at Quarterback. Please feel to check me out on twitter and some of the other pieces I will be working on for The Odds Breakers.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Over 7.5 Wins (-125), Under 7.5 Wins (-105)
I hate to admit this, but I have always had a soft spot for the Buccaneers growing up. My best friend was a huge Bucs fan and loved football more than I did. The odds are stacked against the Bucs this year since they are slated to play 8 teams that made the playoffs this past year. Will Jameis after missing a few games to start the NFL season take the necessary steps this year to leap into the NFL elite squad? Jameis has no shortage of targets between Evans, Desean Jackson,and OJ Howard. They invested a 2nd round pick in Ronald Jones from USC after they shipped out Doug Martin. On defense they took a page from the Philadelphia Eagles, who stole that page from the New York Giants and that move is to invest heavy in the D-line, get after the quarterback, and clog up the running holes. JPP, Gerald McCoy and Vinny Curry will be joined up front by the big man Vita Vea.The 6 foot 4 inch and 347 pound rookie Vita will fill up both A gaps and possibly the B gaps. Their LB’s and DB’s are led by Lavonte David, Brent Grimes and Kwon Alexander. The division games are very tough and realistically they will be lucky to survive 2-4 but if they went 1-5 it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to anyone at all. Looking at their non-divisional home games things get a little tough. Visiting sunny Tampa this season will be The 49ers, Redskins, Steelers, Eagles and Browns. As I see it, The Buccaneers should only be favored against the Browns, and the line against the Redskins should be right around a pick’em. Against the 49ers, Eagles and Steelers they could be at least 7 point dogs. On the road they will face the Cowboys, Bengals, Ravens, Bears and Giants. I see this as 3-4 winnable games for Jameis and company. With Winston expected to be suspended for three games against the Saints, Eagles and Steelers I see them starting 0-3 which can just take the wind out of teams sails. I love the Under 7.5 wins and recommend a play on it.
Atlanta Falcons, Over 9.5 (-125), Under 9.5 (-105)
The Dirty Birds in Atlanta have the offensive firepower to compete with any team in the NFL. They invested heavy in Matt Ryan this past offseason and clearly want to make a run for glory since they added another toy for Ryan to throw the ball to when they drafted Calvin Ridley in Rd. 1 of the NFL Draft. At any moment the Falcons could have Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Calvin Ridley, Devonta Freeman, and Tevin Coleman all on the field at one time. That is not scary that is an absolute nightmare. Matt Ryan has the potential to set a career high in passing yards this season and I won’t be surprised if he jumps back into the elite conversation after this season. On defense they will need to keep improving and developing. The Falcons will need to hope that Vic Beasley and Takkarist Mckinley can create pressure up front to help a mediocre secondary. In the division the best case scenario is 5-1, however I do believe 4-2 is more realistic. They should take both games with Tampa Bay and could see them splitting with the Saints and Panthers. At home they face a favorable schedule which includes the Ravens, Cardinals, Bengals, Giants and Cowboys. They should be favorites in all of these games. 5-0 could very well happen but on the safe side because of variance I will say 4-1. Things get a little tougher on the road when they face the Eagles, Redskins, Packers, Browns and Steelers. The Falcons should enter the games against the Redskins and Browns as at least 7 point favorites. I think they will be small dogs against the Eagles and Packers. The Pittsburgh game would not surprise me if it opens right around a pick. ( Side note: I already love the over in that game already and I don’t know the total.) On the safe side of things 3-2 very easy to see but once again 4-1 is very doable for what should be a high-powered offensive juggernaut. -125 isn’t that enough juice for me to stay away from this line. I love the Over 9.5 and recommend a play on it.
Carolina Panthers, Over 8.5 wins (-120), Under 8 (-110)
Is Cam Newton is overrated? I look up and down at this offense and I think to myself, wow they are just not that impressive compared to the rest of the division. Cam Newton will keep you in games, but I do not think he holds the clutch gene to get it done. At RB they will hopefully turn over all the keys to Christian McCaffrey but something tells me they want to see if CJ Anderson still has some gas left in the tank. Greg Olsen is an elite TE and gives Cam another solid resource to pair with McCaffrey. Rookie DJ Moore better be all he billed up to be since the teammates surrounding him are average players at best sorry Torrey Smith and Devin Funchess. On defense the strength is the core at Linebacker, Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis and Shaq Thompson. Seeing those 3 names together I am kind of impressed. They added Poe for their DL, Cockrell at CB, (much better player than people think). They also brought back Julius Peppers and drafted Donte Jackson CB from LSU who some thought may be a reach. In terms of the division they will either end finishing these games 3-3 or 2-4. Coming to visit Carolina this year we have New York Giants, Cowboys, Bengals, Ravens and Seahawks. They should beat the Giants no problem. The Cowboys, Bengals and Seahawks should have the Panthers set at small favorites and see them being about a pick against the Ravens. I would say they finish these home games 3-2. A tough slate on the road against the Eagles,. Redskins, Lions and Steelers. Oh yeah they play the Browns as well but that should we a win along with their matchup against the Redskins. They lose the Steelers and Eagles game and the matchup against the Lions is a toss-up that I’ll lean Lions on their home field. All that being said gets them to 2-3. I don’t see any value in this number either way I am and recommending you stay away.
New Orleans Saints, Over 9.5 wins (-140), Under 9.5 wins (+100)
In all seriousness, the Saints made the most questionable move in the draft by trading up to select DE Marcus Davenport. I enjoyed Marcus’ tape prior to the draft and love when elite players on lower level teams get a chance to be noticed. I noticed one thing when watching the NFC Divisional game against the Vikings and that was they should have invested some talent at cornerback. Granted a freak play, but at 5 foot 8 inches I think I make that tackle at least push Diggs out-of-bounds. On offense Brees may have lost a yard and some zip on his pass but he is still Drew Brees and will get it done by any means necessary especially when you have the talent like Brees does surrounding him. Alvin Kamara should continue to excel in his early career and look for Tre’Quan Smith out of UCF to make an immediate impact. The Saints have never been a great team on defense, but did improve drastically last season. It may not be necessary for them to be great when they can put up points they way do. In the division, I think they take both games from Tampa and split the season series against the Falcons and Panthers. That leaves them 4-2 heading into out of division play. I will say the schedule isn’t easy. Home matchups versus the Eagles, Redskins, Steelers, Rams and Browns. We will get the obvious wins out-of-the-way with the Redskins and Browns. The Eagles get the Saints after a bye week and I am not one to bet against any coach from the Andy Reid coaching tree after a bye week, so I will put the matchup against the Eagles as a loss. I think they lose one of the games against the Saints and or Steelers. On the road the travel to play the Vikings, Cowboys. Giants, Ravens and Bengals. At worst they finish 3-2 but could easily be 4-1. The only games I question are the Cowboys and Vikings. I love this Over 9.5. The juice is high but it’s worth laying.
