NFC South has a medium hard schedule. The last 2 years had this conference as the best in the NFL. Last year didn’t really live up to that standard but we have to remember that the Falcons and the Panthers have both been to Superbowls with their same coach and quarterbacks over the last 4 years. The NFC South plays the NFC West and the AFC South. Jaguars and 49ers should be better teams. Still get the Cardinals at least.
1. New Orleans Saints – Win Total 10.5
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large vs Cowboys and at the Bears
Key losses: RB Mark Ingram, C Max Unger, ILB Manti Te’o, S Kurt Coleman, TE Benjamin Watson, OT Jermon Bushrod, DT Tyeler Davison, CB P.J. Williams
Key additions: TE Jared Cook, RB Latavius Murray, C/G Nick Easton, DT Malcom Brown, CB/KR Marcus Sherels, DE Mario Edwards
Whom they drafted: C Erik McCoy, S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S Saquan Hampton, TE Alize Mack, LB Kaden Elliss
Summary: Can this team relive the success that they had last year and regain the momentum they lost when the NFL literally stole their playoff game from them? Well anything is possible with a guy like Drew Breese but this team will once again have it tough with their at large games and players that they lost. This team will have to replace some production this year. I do not like the Saints losing Ingram, Te’o, Unger, Coleman, Watson and Davison. I suppose New Orlean’s draft could help a little but not a ton of picks there. I do like picking up Jerred Cook and Malcolm brown. I have to deduct a half game for good health last year and 2 games for the players that they lost. Give them a half game back for draft and free agency and you have 10.5 on the button.
Action: none
2. Atlanta Falcons – Win total is 9
Schedule: Hard – Atlanta plays the Vikings and the Eagles for at large. Not really easy.
Key additions: G James Carpenter, G Jamon Brown, TE Luke Stocker, RB Kenjon Barner
Key losses: CB Robert Alford, RB Tevin Coleman, DE Bruce Irvin, CB Brian Poole, RT Ryan Schraeder, DE Brooks Reed, CB Justin Bethel, WR Marvin Hall
Whom they drafted: G Chris Lindstrom, OT Kaleb McGary, CB Kendall Sheffield, DE John Cominskey, RB Qadree Ollison, CB Jordan Miller, WR Marcus Green
Summary: Atlanta had 7 wins last year. I really like how this teams Pythagorean win total is .75 games over their actual to 7.75. Almost average. The Atlanta Falcons had a medium schedule last year but this team was pretty decimated with injuries losing Devonte Freemon, Dion Jones and Lorenzo Neal early in the season. I have to give them a half game back for that. Now they will be without their best CB Robert Alford, Both defensive ends, RB Telvin Coleman and CB Justin Bethel. Minus a half game there. Their schedule will be hard this year so I have to penalize them a game for that. When I look at their draft they really focused on the O line and guys like me really like that. Give them a game back for that. I really do not think they did quite enough to replace what they lost on defense and they ranked 5th worst last year giving up 6.1 yards per play. I have this team at 7.4 wins which is enough threshold to make a play.
Action: Under 9 wins
3. Carolina Panthers – Win total is 7.5
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games vs the Packers and the Redskins.
Key additions: C Matt Paradis, DE Bruce Irvin, WR Chris Hogan
Key losses: LB Thomas Davis, C Ryan Kalil, LT Matt Kalil, WR Devin Funchess, LB David Mayo, K Chandler Catanzaro, RB Kenjon Barner
Whom they drafted: DE Brian Burns, OT Greg Little, QB Will Grier, DE/OLB Christian Miller, RB Jordan Scarlett, OT Dennis Daley, WR Terry Godwin
Summary: Carolina lost a lot with the Kalil Brothers on O-line but I think they recovered nicely picking up Matt Paradis from Denver and Drafting Greg Little. Marty Hurney hit it out of the park in addressing the team’s biggest needs up front with Burns . He also wise to invest a little higher pick on Grier to help push Cam Newton. Miller was a sneaky pickup for Ron Rivera’s planned hybrid defense. Picking up Chris Hogan was a nice touch. I think that over all they gained on this draft and free agency a net 1 game is fair against their losses. Funchess wasn’t a huge loss but they do lack in pass catchers. Schedule was Medium last year and will be Medium Hard this year playing at Green Bay. I have them at 7.65
Action: No Play
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Win total at 6.5
Schedule: – Medium Hard – At large games vs the Lions and the Giants
Key additions: P Bradley Pinion, OLB Shaquil Barrett, S Kentrell Brice, S Deone Bucannon, WR Breshard Perriman
Key losses: OLB Kwon Alexander, WR DeSean Jackson, WR Adam Humphries, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, ILB Adarius Taylor, DE Vinny Curry
Whom they drafted: ILB Devin White, CB Sean Bunting, CB Jamel Dean, S Mike Edwards, DE Anthony Nelson, K Matt Gay, WR Scott Miller, DT Terry Beckner Jr.
Summary: I really don’t know why most people think that Tampa’s schedule is harder than Carolina’s but so be it I guess. I love their new coach Bruce Ariens and I think he is a definite half game upgrade there right off the bat. This team really needed defensive back help and they went hard on that in the draft with their top 5 rounds going defense. Tampa gave up a huge 29 points per game last year but that was in part from their -18 turnover margin. Sadly this team was pretty healthy last year and still could only mustered up 5 wins. The Buccaneers will still have a tough time replacing Kwon Alexander and Adarius Taylor. They didn’t really help their O-line issues and Edge pass rusher problems well this draft but they had so many holes making it hard to address everything. Jameis Winston has to prove to be that leader that they thought they drafted a 3 or 4 years ago. Many people didn’t love their draft but I thought it was ok because their defensive backs were glaringly bad. I like the Shaq Barett and Deone Bucannon pickups. Replacing Deshawn Jackson and Adam Humphries won’t be easy but they do have 2 nice tight ends. Tampa lost about a win’s worth of guys but gain back 1.5 wins in the draft and free agency and coach. This should be a honeymoon year for Tampa Bay. I have them at 5.5 wins.
Action: Lean under
