On January 9th, SF overcame a 17-0 deficit to defeat the LA Rams in overtime. That got the 49ers into the playoffs. Once there, the dangerous 49ers have won at Dallas and at GB, both times playing stellar defense. LA had to regroup after that loss, but luckily retained the 4th seed and easily took care of business vs. Arizona in round one. Matchups favored LA last week at Tampa, but careless fumbles enabled the Bucs to tie the game at 27 apiece with just 24 seconds remaining. With two perfect throws, Matthew Stafford put a positive spin on his eventual football legacy as LA beat Tampa, 30-27. What’s next? Stafford and the Rams are 0-2 vs. SF this season, and overall SF owns a six-game win streak in the series.
San Fran analysis: I give Shanahan credit for not messing up the 4th quarter vs. GB, and for prevailing in less-than-ideal weather, with a QB obviously not at 100%. But that’s not all. By game’s end, both WR Kittle and do it all WR/RB Samuel were limping, and defensively, LB Warner (game time decision) and DL Bosa (concussion protocol) were at less than 100%. Jimmy G was 23-32 vs. LA on 1/9, but with a 1-2 TD to interception ratio. He was 15-19 in meeting #1. RB Mitchell was 23-85 and is healthy, but has run just 44-149 in the playoffs after having far more success in the regular season. Part of it of course is Tampa’s great run D, but LA’s run D is also quite stout. Samuel ran 8-45 vs. LA and caught four passes for an additional 95 yards. He’s 20-111 running in the playoffs and 6-82 receiving. TE Kittle is gutting it out after being less than 100% healthy much of 2021. WR’s Aiyuk and Jennings will likely need to step up their game for this one. Aiyuk was not a factor last week but went 6-107 vs. LA (Jennings (6-94). These five guys “appear” to be the players LA must stop, but I’ll discuss one more option at the end of this report. Hats off to defensive coordinator Ryans, who clearly has had this team peak at season’s end. I was skeptical of what he could accomplish in year #1, but the point defense has improved, as have defensive sacks. It’s also been difficult to run on the 49ers. Still, I’m not bullish on their pass D%, although holding Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers to just over 60% is admirable. During the season SF allowed 68%. Stafford was 21-32 (238 yards) in their last meeting. SF has four interceptions in two games vs. Stafford, while sacking him seven times. PK Gould is 20-20 in postseason play. I have to add that SF’s kick return defense has been somewhat vulnerable.
LA analysis: “Good” Mathew Stafford has emerged in the postseason, this after a terrible stretch to end the regular season. He’s 41-55 for 566 yards and a 4-0 ratio. LA force-fed Cam Akers last week, and Cam did not fare well (24-48). I was surprised RB Michel received ZERO carries. Michel is less of a factor in the pass game, and if used, it should be in the run game. RB Henderson was cleared last week but did not play. In 12 games he ran 4.6 per carry, with 29 receptions. His presence could diversify the offense. Obviously, the all-in Rams have benefitted by adding WR Beckham on offense. He’s fully integrated into the offense and more motivated than ever before. He caught just two passes vs. SF on 1/9 but has caught 19 passes otherwise in his recent four games other than vs. SF. WR Kupp has been amazing. No one assigned to cover Kupp will be feared in this matchup. WR Van Jefferson and TE Tyler Higbee are the next guys up, and one or both need to make a difference in this game. Jefferson has just three playoff receptions, and had a total of five receptions in two games vs. SF. The reliable Higbee has seven playoff receptions and 61 regular season receptions in his 15 games, with nine of those receptions coming vs. SF. LA’s defense sacked SF three times in the regular season finale but just once in their earlier meeting. LA’s pass D% regressed this past season (66.6%) but has been stout vs. Murray and Brady in the playoffs (55.7%). As noted, Jimmy G has been effective vs. LA. That’s one stat sheet battle line to watch. LA has been strong vs. the run all season long. SF is one of the better rushing teams, typical in Shanahan’s tenure. SF ran 44-156 in their 1st meeting and 31-135 in the 1/9 game. I’d say that’s not a bad stat line from either perspective. All-in? Defensively, Von Miller has clearly added value. He has 28 tackles and seven sacks in his last six games, including a five tackle-one sack performance vs. SF. Once again, SF’s OL has a challenge on their hands.
Some matchup analysis and game keys: SF will script their 1st 15 plays but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some variety. A jet sweep or two could be part of the mix early or late. Could we see a Trey Lance sighting? Kyle Juszczyk had only eight regular season carries but had two key rush attempts last week. He caught 30 passes. Could he see some action down in the red zone in this matchup? We saw last Sunday that Tampa had to use TE Gronkowski for blocking purposes until he was absolutely essential to the pass game when they got down 27-3. Kittle may have to split his time as well vs. the LA pass rush. As part of my game keys that means Jennings and/or Aiyuk have to come through. LA took the pressure of Stafford in the playoff win vs. Arizona, needing him to pass but 17 times. Ideally, they establish the run, but I’d like to see Henderson involved as well. Other than that, I think we’ll see the usual suspects in their offensive attack. One defensive key is to get more pressure on Jimmy G. Fluster him, and LA is in charge. Let him have space, and he has shown he can complete passes vs. LA’s secondary.
Thursday morning thoughts: Which QB will avoid turnovers? Who wins the sack battle? Can any of the star players for either team be stopped? These teams know each other quite well. Both have confidence. No decision at this time. This is one game where charting individual matchups and game flow will be critical to making a decision as to who wins the game.
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