The NFC West has to play the AFC East and the NFC East which is actually very good minus the travel. Some of these teams have asked the NFL to schedule the East Coast games back to back in order to stay there the full week before the next game. Let’s look at the opponents. In the NFC East the Giants and Redskins have been garbage, the Eagles are trending down. In the AFC East, the Patriots have taking a huge step back without Brady and the Dolphins and Jets are still a bunch of meh. Within the NFC West division, the Cardinals are supposed to be better, the Seahawks and Rams are playoff contenders as usual, and the 49ers made the Superbowl. If it wasn’t for the travel this conference would have it pretty easy this year so I think it is Medium Easy in general.
1. San Francisco 49ers – Total wins 10.5 juiced to the over -125
Schedule – Medium – At large games vs Green Bay and New Orleans
Key losses: WR Emmanuel Sanders, RB Matt Breida, TE Livine Toilolo, DT Shelton Day
Key additions: G Tom Compton (straight out of Compton) DE Kerry Hyder, WR Travis Bengamin
Whom they drafted: DL Javon Kinlaw, WR Brandon Aiyuk
Summary: Well the Superbowl sure ended strangely for this team. It looked like Kyle Shanahan didn’t have a ton of confidence in Jimmy Garoppolo and you have to wonder if it filters into this season. The good news is that the schedule is only medium in difficulty which is strange for a superbowl team and it is due to the fact that the AFC East and NFC East opponents are not projected to be that good this year in general. The beginning of 49ers schedule is interesting with the second game at the Jets then Giants the week after and I have to assume that this team will stay on the East coast through those 2 weeks. This team really didn’t really gain much with such a light draft but I have to punish them slightly for losing losing Matt Breida, Emmanual Sanders and Shelton Day. My number is 11.75 so no play but a small lean to the over.
Action: Lean over
2. Seattle Seahawks – Win Total 9 juiced to the over -140
Schedule – Medium – At large vs Minnesota and Dallas
Key losses: T George Fant, DT Quinton Jefferson, G DJ Fluker, DE Jadeveon Clowney
Key additions: T Brandon Shell, C BJ Finney, TE Greg Olsen, DE Bruce Irvin, T Cedrick Ogbuehi
Whom they drafted: LB Jordyn Brooks, Edge Darrell Taylor, G/C Damien Lewis
Summary: Here we go again with the immensely over-achieving Russel Wilson led Seahawks. This team also did a lot of robbing Pto pay Paul in the off-season but the good news is that they revamped their offensive line and maybe, just maybe, their blocking will be improved for 2020. Pro Football Focus ranked their offensive line at only 27 last year. Their schedule is ranked medium but their are a bunch of long distance trips to Atlanta, Miami, Buffalo and Washington. I like DK Metcalf and Tyler Locket a ton and if Will Disley and Greg Olson stays healthy, then I expect Seattle to once again compete for the NFC West. My number is actually 9.35 so it lines right up with the Vegas expectation.
Action – No Play
3. LA RAMS – Win total 8.5 juiced to the under -125
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games vs Chicago and NY Giants
Key losses: RB Todd Gurley, DE Dante Fowler, LB Corey Littleton, K Greg Zuerline, CB Nickell Robey-Coleman, OLB Clay Matthews, QB Blake Bortles
Key additions: DT A’Shawn Robinson, OLB Leonard Floyd
Whom they drafted: RB Cam Akers, WR Van Jefferson, Edge Terrell Lewis
Summary: This Rams team has had it very difficult since losing their superbowl. They had the hardest schedule last year according to efficiency and now they have a medium-hard schedule mostly due to the successes of the Seahawks and the 49ers. The Rams have lost a TON in free agency. The Todd Gurley situation was weird with this team but he gone. This team also shed Clay Matthews, Dante Fowler, Corey Littleton and Legatron Greg Zuerline. The concern that I have for the Rams is that they kinda cheaped out on edge rusher by signing Leonard Floyd who was a bust on the bears and they waited until the 3rd round to grab one in the draft. Floyd is a guy who looks like Tarzan but thinks like the Tiger King. He isn’t too bright. LA is also a little weak on the secondary behind Jalen Ramsey and didn’t address their needs well in the off-season. My number on team wins is 7.9 so no play
Action – No Play
4. Arizona Cardinals – Win Total 7.5
Schedule – Medium – At large games vs Detroit and Washington
Key losses: RB David Johnson (but he didn’t do much), DE Rodney Gunter, TE Charles Clay
Key additions: WR Deandre Hopkins, DE Jordan Phillips, OLB Devon Kennard, OLB Devondre Campbell,
Whom they drafted: LB Isaiah Simmons, T Josh Jones, DT Leki Fotu, LB Evan Weaver
Summary: Ok, I was a little wrong on Kyler Murray last year but not wrong enough where we lost our under 6 wins season win total on them. Thank goodness they didn’t beat the Lions, and instead, tied them so I had to adjust for that. I really love what this team did in the off-season. They stole D’Andre Hopkins from the Texans and didn’t even have to give up their best RB in Kenyon Drake. Johnson was pretty good but very injury prone and his contract was huge. I also like how they fixed a lot about their defense by getting Jordan Phillips and D’Vondre Campbell. Wow, this could the most improved team in the league. The only problem that I have is that they really didn’t address their bad offensive line minus drafting a reach with Tackle Josh Jones from Houston in the third round. The good news is that Kyler Murray can operate very well out of the pocket. I have their wins at 8.1 so no play at 7.5. I personally think the best play in this division is the Cardinals winning the division at +600 or better. San Francisco will have a hard schedule and their QB Jimmy G has shown some weaknesses and there might be a trust problem. The Seahawks and the Rams win totals are very close to the Cardinals anyway so it’s not that far fetched.
Action – Lean over 7.5 wins but take Arizona +600 to win the NFC West for a 3/4 unit
