The NFC West remained at the top of the totem pole last year with the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams winning it all while the division had three teams in the playoffs. Absolutely unreal. The Seahawks went from first to worst last year while the Niners had went from worst to the playoffs. The NFC West will get the NFC South and the AFC West this year which I will call medium hard in general. There are no head coaching changes, but there is certainly some uncertainty at the quarterback position for a few of these teams. Even though the NFC West has some great organizations, I have to think that this division takes a step back this year as a whole, but do not be surprised if we get someone back in the super bowl for 2023.
1. LA RAMS –
Vegas win total: 10.5
2021 Wins: 12
Pythagorean Wins: 10.5
Schedule: Hard – At large games vs Buffalo, vs Dallas and @ Green Bay
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: Edge Von Miller, CB Darious Williams, G Austin Corbett, DT Sebastian Joseph, RB Sonny Michel, LB Troy Reeder, WR Odell Beckham, T Andrew Whitworth
Key additions: ILB Bobby Wagner, WR Allen Robinson
Key Draft Picks: T Logan Bruss and a bunch of prayers
Summary: The Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams cut their long time quarterback Jared Goff, picked up veteran Matt Stafford and the rest was history. Do you feel bad for Goff? I have a rule to never feel bad for anyone who doesn’t have to work another day in their lives. This team lost a lot in free agency, but that is always expected from a Super Bowl Champion. The problem with the Rams is that they mortgaged their future drafts in order to collect a lot of this talent, and it might end up coming to bite them in the not so far away future. This team will be shifting their offensive line around being that Austin Corbett left to the Panthers and left Tackle Andrew Whitworth retired. This team loses some big names, but they at least keep the core whole. Also nice to see Aaron Donald signing again this past Monday. The Rams were pretty fortunate not to get very injured last year, and they should have some money to spend when needed. Don’t be surprised to seem some moves later for this team when they are in the mix for another super bowl run.
My Number: 9.75
Action – Lean Under
LA Rams power rating: 5.25
2. San Francisco 49ers –
Vegas Win Total: 10 juiced to the under
2021 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 10.26
Schedule: Medium – At large games @ Chicago, vs Miami, vs Washington
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: QB Jimmy Garopollo?, G Laken Tomlinson, DT DJ Jones, CB K’Waun Williams, DE Arden Key, G Tom Compton, RB Raheem Mostert, CB Josh Norman,
Key additions: CB Charvarius Ward, S George Odum, ILB Oren Burks, DT Hassan Ridgeway
Key Draft Picks: Edge Drake Jackson and a bunch of bums
Summary: Ok, John Lynch is going to come out of the year either looking like an idiot, or looking like a genius. Not much middle ground there. The 49ers picked Trey Lance in the 2021 NFL draft when they could have gotten Mack Jones, or Justin Fields. Heck, they could have not even picked up a quarterback because Jimmy Garoppolo was extremely efficient ranking 4th in EPA + CPOE (completion percentage over expectation). I mean, he ranked higher than Tom Brady and Dak Prescott. Now, the 49ers are probably a little embarrassed by going so hard for Trey lance last year so they have decided to still try and pursue a trade for Jimmy G. Now when I saw Trey Lance play last year, he didn’t look much better than Jordan Love for the Packers or even Davis Mills for the Texans. Maybe he takes a huge step forward this year, but risking the better quarterbacks in the league is insane to me. Also keep in mind, the 49ers were very banged up at the skill positions making Garoppolo’s feat even that much more impressive. All of this is why the 49ers have to have a great second year performance out of division two quarterback Trey Lance in order for Lynch to look good. The next big issue with this team is that they lost some offensive lineman and some starters on defense while not having a particularly good draft this year with their 1st pick at number 61. I am concerned for this 49ers team and my number is only 8.63 wins. Now, do I want to go against Kyle Shanahan and take that under with a medium schedule? Well, I am not rushing to the Window to do that just yet.
My Number: 8.63
Action: Lean under
San Francisco 49ers Power Rating: 1.75 if Trey Lance, and 4 if Jimmy G
3. Arizona Cardinals –
Vegas Win Total: 8.5
2021 Wins: 11
Pythagorean Wins: 9.95
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large vs Philadelphia, @ Minnesota, vs New England
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: WR Christian Kirk, Edge Chandler Jones, RB Chase Edmonds, ILB Jordan Hicks, DE Jordan Phillips, DT Corey Peters, TE Demetrius Harris
Key additions: OLB Nick Vigil, RB Darrel Williams, WR Marquise Brown
Key Draft Picks: TE Trey McBride, Edge Cameron Thomas, Edge Myjai Sanders and a bunch of meh
Summary: Next time I see Steve Keim at my grocery store, I am going to ask him what the hell was he thinking in overpaying for Budda Baker, James Conner, and Justin Pugh? I really like JJ Watt and all, but his contract really handcuffed Keim on defense and now this team had to go hard on some late round edge rushers that most likely won’t pan out. Now to be quite honest, I do like the trade for Marquise Brown who might be better than Christian Kirk while being much cheaper at four years 11.7M, but that won’t make up for the defense that they lost in Chandler Jones, Jordan Hicks and Jordan Phillips. One big thing that you have to factor in this year for the Cardinals is fumble luck. This team recovered 14 opponent fumbles while only losing 4. That is a massive +10 number and it needs to be accounted for when coming up with wins totals. I think this Cardinals team will upset some teams, but I really can’t trust them and wonder how good Kyler will be with a nice fat paycheck slowing him down. Arizona was at least injured some last year so I had to give them a little back for that. Let’s see if they can take a step forward, but the market at 8.5 wins doesn’t seem to think so.
My Number: 8.73
Action – No lean
Arizona Cardinals Power Rating: 1.75
4. Seattle Seahawks –
Vegas win total: 5.5 juiced to the over
2021 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 8.9
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large @ Detroit, vs New York Giants, vs New York Jets
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard –
Key losses: QB Russell Wilson, ILB Bobby Wagner, S D.J. reed, TE Gerald Everett, T Jamarco Jones, DE Carlos Dunlap, T Duane Brown
Key additions: QB Drew Lock, LB Uchenna Nwosu, DT Quinton Jefferson, G Austin Blythe, CB Artie Burns, WR Marquise Goodwin
Key draft picks: OT Charles Cross, Edge Boye Mafe, RB Kenneth Walker III and a bunch of dudes
Summary: I think that we can what Seattle is doing here quite easily when they let their best defensive player walk, while they traded their best offensive player and franchise quarterback Russell Wilson. Many fans think that they saw a big decline with Wilson over the past few years, but I actually blame the coaching and I do not think that the Seahawks were playing to Russell’s strengths. According to the Football database, Seattle ranked DEAD LAST in number of rushing plays, which doesn’t exactly help set up play action, and they really did not utilize their short to mid-range passing game using tight ends and dump offs to the running back. This team was too busy looking for the long ball ranking 1st in intended air yards. Last year Wilson ranked 5th in quarterback rating according to next gen stats. The Seahawks had a pretty big Pythagorean win total difference of 8.9 Pythag to 7 actual wins while they ranking a massive 9th in overall DVOA. In saying all of this, for 2022 it is clearly a rebuild year and I really do not think that Drew Lock has much of a chance behind this dreadful offensive line in this very difficult division. I do like how they drafted for a first year of rebuild, and will be curious where they draft next year.
My number: 5.25
Action – Lean Under
Seattle’s Power Rating: -7.25
