The NFC West last year at this time was looked at as one of the best divisions in football. That quickly changed though with how poorly the Cardinals played started the season, as well as the huge injuries to the LA Rams. The Seahawks were able to over-achieve some due to this, while the 49ers won a bunch of games without a real quarterback. One has to wonder if Brock Purdy would have been able to win that game vs the Eagles without the elbow injury. I say no. Anyways, this division has it pretty rough in general this year having to play the AFC North and the NFC East for their respective schedules. There is no doubt in my mind that some of these teams may have the exact same issues as they did last year. Let’s take a deeper dive into the NFC West.
Divisional Futures: 49ers -150 – Seahawks +200 – LA Rams +750 – Cardinals – +2500
1. San Francisco 49ers –
Vegas Win Total: 10.5 juiced to the over -120
2022 Wins: 13
Pythagorean Wins: 12.44
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games @ Minnesota, @ Jacksonville, vs Tampa Bay
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, RT Mike McGlinchey, DE Samson Ebukam, DE Charles Omenihu, S Jimmy Ward, CB Emmanuel Mosley, T Daniel Brunskill, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, DT Hassan Ridgeway, K Robbie Gould, DC DeMeco Ryans.
Key additions: DT Javon Hargrave, CB Isaiah Oliver, QB Sam Darnold, DE Clelin Ferrell, C Jon Feliciano
Key Draft Picks: S JiAyir Brown, K Jake Moody, TE Cameron Latu and a bunch of hope.
Summary: Last year, I said that John Lynch is going to come out of the 2022 season either looking like an idiot, or looking like a genius with not much middle ground there. Now, I guess I have to admit that I was somewhat wrong. Even though Trey Lance became a total bust, the whole Brock Purdy thing worked out well, at least according to the media, but I am going to pump the brakes a bit on that. By the time Brock got in to play his first real game on November 21st, the 49ers were past the hard part of their schedule. Brock played the Cardinals, a Tua-less Miami, a bad Tampa Bay, at overrated Seattle, vs Washington without a QB, at the Raiders, and vs the Cardinals. Dak was horrible in their playoff game while the 49ers only won it 19-12. I mean, all the credit goes to Kyle Shanahan and I think he could have worked that kind of magic with many second rate quarterbacks. Here is the good news, the 49ers will get Purdy back sometime this season, so that we can actually see what he is made of. in the mean time, Sam Darnold is an experienced quarterback that might be able to look very good to great in Kyle Shanahan’s amazing system. Here is some more good news. The 49ers get to play the Cardinals, Seahawks, and the Rams twice. I could see this team relying on their amazing coach this year springing them to the NFC conference champion to maybe a super bowl appearance. In saying that, I could also see this team struggle some if their quarterback play is poor due to a rough NFC East and AFC North schedule. As far as rest is concern, the 49ers got pretty much screwed being that they are the least rested team with -20 rest days total throughout the season. I think this team can get to 11 or 12 wins, but it won’t be easy with all of the guys that they had to turn over to free agency.
My Number: 10.72
Action: No Action
San Francisco 49ers Power Rating: 5.5
2. Seattle Seahawks –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the over -130
2022 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 8.55
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large @ Detroit, vs Carolina, @ Tennessee
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy –
Key losses: DT Quinton Jefferson, LB Cody Barton, DT Al Woods, RB Rashaad Penny, DT Shelby Harris
Key additions: DE Dre’Mont Jones, S Julian Love, DE Jarran Reed, LB Bobby Wagner, LB Devon Bush, G Evan Brown
Key draft picks: CB Devon Witherspoon, WR Jaxon-Smith-Njigba, Edge Derick Hall, RB Zach Charbonnett, and a bunch of guys
Summary: If there was a team that I was wrong about from 2022, it was the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is such an interesting team coming into 2023 being that I feel that they over-achieved last year, yet I really like what this team did in free agency this year. Last year, their biggest weakness was stopping the run. This team allowed 151 rushing yards per game ranking third to last. I really like the fact that the Seahawks dumped most of their defensive line, and replaced it with better players in Dre’Mont Jones, and Jarran Reed. You also have to love the fact that Bobby Wagner is back at Linebacker from their 2014 super bowl team along with a huge pick up from the Steelers in Devon Bush. The Seahawks also grabbed the best corner in the draft in Devon Witherspoon along with another weapon for Gino in Jaxson Smith-Njigba. The offense here is stacked with DK Metcalf at the number one receiver, Kenneth Walker at running back, and Noah Fant at tight end. I feel like this team maybe should have taken another three technique (nose tackle) earlier in the draft, but maybe Bryan Mone steps up big this year to help stop the run. I came into this preview really not wanting to like Seattle, but I can’t ignore some of the great moves that this team put together in the offseason. I think this team makes the playoffs this year as long as Gino can be at least an average quarterback.
My number: 9.78
Action – over
Seattle’s Power Rating: 2.5
3. LA Rams –
Vegas win total: 6.5
2022 Wins: 5
Pythagorean Wins: 6.31
Schedule: Medium – At large games @ Indianapolis, @ Green Bay, vs New Orleans
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: K Matt Gay, S Nick Stott, LB Bobby Wagner, DE A’Shawn Robinson, QB Baker Mayfield, DT Greg Gaines, S Taylor Rapp, G David Edwards, Edge Leonard Floyd, WR Allen Robinson
Key additions: none but QB Matthew Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp should be back.
Key Draft Picks: G Steve Avila, Edge Byron Young, QB Stetson Bennet and a bunch of prayers.
Summary: There has never been more of a super bowl hangover like the Rams suffered last year. I am not sure that they will shake this headache when they lost so much of their top draft capital from trades from the previous seasons. I think that they did just ok, with what they had to work with in the 2023 NFL draft, but I also think that Matthew Stafford could be at the twilight of his career. This defense pretty much shed everyone except for Aaron Donald. The Jalen Ramsey trade for a third round pick to the Dolphins really says a lot to me about what this team is really trying to do. The only good news is that Matt Stafford and Cooper Kupp will be back healthy for another run at this, but this offensive line went from very good to very bad pretty fast which could mean bad offensive numbers all around. for 2023, one will not really be able to recognize this Rams team from a few years back. Even though that LA under-achieved by about 1.3 games per their Pythagorean win total, I just do not see a lot of future here with the losses that they suffered in the offseason. This team also is the second worst for net negative days rest behind the 49ers at -17. This team is only favored in two games this year both against the Cardinals. The Rams make me want to coin a new phrase for the next first round draft pick for 2024 next year. Let’s go with #CollapseforCaleb!
My Number: 5.66
Action – Lean Under
LA Rams power rating: -2.5
4. Arizona Cardinals –
Vegas Win Total: 4.5 juiced to the over -125
2022 Wins: 4
Pythagorean Wins: 5.91
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large vs Atlanta, @ Houston, @ Chicago
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: Coach Kliff Kingsbury, DT JJ Watt, WR D’Andre Hopkins, DE Zach Allen, CB Byron Murphy, WR Robbie Anderson, C Robbie Hudson
Key additions: Coach Jonathan Gannon, QB Kyler Murray from injury, OLB Kyzir White, WR Zach Pascal, T Dennis Daley and a ton of dudes for league minimum.
Key Draft Picks: T Paris Johnson, Edge BJ Ojuari, CB Garrett Williams and a bunch of hope.
Summary: I am scared that I might have gotten Steve Keim fired from all of my complaints about him on twitter… Or maybe it was that whole Mexico thing… Anyways Steve probably deserved to be fired because he decided to draft a child, and then after he found out that he was a child, he still decided to pay that child a ton of money making the next regime now stuck with a very expensive liability. JJ Watt saw that he himself made a massive mistake in allowing his trade to this Cardinals team, so he then decided to hang it up a little early and retire. I feel like JJ still has two or three more good years left in him. The latest development is cutting a top three wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins. This is a horrible move this early. I mean, why not hold on to him a while and try and trade him mid-season to a contender with injuries? It makes no sense to me. Anyways, the best thing that is happening for the Cardinals is that the expectations are very low on this team, and now just maybe they can fly under the radar. Arizona at least still has WRs Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz, and Rondale Moore, but it wouldn’t shock me if one of them requests a trade during a very potentially turbulent season. In my opinion, there is no reason to keep them all if Kyler Murray has no time to throw to any of them anyways. Moore at least is in his second year and can stick it out a bit longer without a high salary. I would like to say that at least the Cardinals are trying to fix their defense with the Jonathan Gannon hire, but I also think that Gannon is a little bit overrated due to the Eagles cake schedule that they had last year. There is also a chance that video gamer quarterback Kyler Murray might confuse his coach with the main boss in Zelda (Gannon) and therefore might put an arrow through his eye. I think this team gets four or five wins, and unless Kyler Murray has matured, this team might compete for the worst team in the league.
My Number: 4.46
Action – No lean
Arizona Cardinals Power Rating: -5.75
