The NFC West Once again, the NFC West ended up a top heavy division except with the Rams and the Seahawks switching positions. Many predicted that the Cardinals were going to be the worst team in football, yet they seemed to have some fight in them early while surprising a few teams like the Steelers and the Eagles late into the season. The Rams were predicted to lose more than nine games by many analysts and sharp bettors, yet they decided to mess around and make the playoffs. Seattle was the meddling team who fired their coach after a winning season which was one of my biggest head scratchers of the early offseason. For 2024, The NFC West plays the NFC North and the AFC East. This is really kind of a mixed bag depending on how the Vikings, Bears and the Patriots really are next season. Lets dig into these teams some.
Divisional Futures: 49ers -195 – LA Rams +330 – Seahawks +700 – Cardinals – +1300
1. San Francisco 49ers –
Vegas Win Total: 11.5 juiced to the under -125
2023 Wins: 12
Pythagorean Wins: 12.8
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games vs Kansas City, vs Dallas, @ Tampa Bay
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: DE Arik Armstead, DE Chase Young (borrowed), TE Charlie Woerner, QB Sam Darnold, DT Javon Kinlaw, DT Sebastian Joseph, CB Isaiah Oliver, OLB Randy Gregory, DE Clelin Ferrell, DC Steve Wilks, FS Tashaun Gipson
Key additions: DC Nick Sorensen, Defensive assistant Brandon Staley, DE Leonard Floyd, DE Yetur Gross Matos, DT Jordan Elliott, QB Joshua Dobbs, CB Isaac Yiadom, CB Rock Ya-Sin
Key Draft Picks: WR Ricky Pearsall, CB Renardo Green, T Dominick Puni, S Malik Mustapha, RB Isaac Guerendo, WR Jacob Cowing
Summary: The 49ers once again was so close yet choked when they had the opportunity to put the Chiefs away in the Super Bowl. Kinda sick of this and Kyle Shanahan needs to get over this hump. The 49ers kept their core guys in the offseason, but they also had to shed a good amount of talent as many good teams do in the offseason. The defense is thin from losing a plethora of defensive line. That worries me some. The depth will take a hit for this team and injuries could really spell trouble. The 49ers also have their offensive issues because they simply cannot pay everyone. Wide Receiver Brandon Ayuik’s camp isn’t happy, and I feel that either him or Deebo Samuel will have to go before the season gets started. One of them has to go. I wasn’t a huge fan of the draft in that I think getting a receiver in round one was suspect. It felt like a power move against Ayuik. In saying all of this, this 49ers team finished second in my power ratings. Brock Purdy was solid as ever in his sophomore season while the team led the league in EPA per play. On defense they were also pretty solid at 10th in EPA, but the firing of Steve Wilks says that they want to be better. The 49ers will remain one of the top three teams in my power ratings for the start of the 2024 season. If they stay healthy, they will be right back in the Super Bowl mix.
My Number: 11.65
Action: No Action
San Francisco 49ers Power Rating: 6.75
2. LA Rams –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the over -140
2023 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 9.39
Schedule: Medium – At large games vs Las Vegas, vs Miami, @ New Orleans
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: DT Aaron Donald, QB Carson Wentz, S Jordan Fuller, G Coleman Shelton, DE Jonah Williams, CB Ahkello Witherspoon.
Key additions: G Jonah Jackson, TE Colby Parkinson, CB Darious Williams, S Kamren Curl, CB Tre-Davious White, QB Jimmy Garoppolo,
Key Draft Picks: Edge Jared Verse, DL Braden Fiske, RB Blake Corum, S Kamren Kinchens, Edge Brennan Jackson.
Summary: Man, I really really need to rethink betting against great coaches. I was one of the first to take the Rams udner 7.5 wins. It closed at 6.5 and Sean McVey, aka F’ around and find out, goes out and wins 10 games. They also gave the Lions a huge run for their money. The obvious thing that happened in the offseason is Aaron Donald’s retirement. One just simply can’t replace that kind of guy. In saying that, you have to love what this team did in the draft and free agency. Getting a great guard like Jonah Jackson was huge for them and drafting a blocking tight end will certainly help the run game. Signing Jimmy Garoppolo was nice as he knows Kyle Shanahan’s offense like the best of them. It was kind of a power move if you ask me. Running back Blake Corum was a steal in the draft while Jared Verse could be a complete stud. The Rams haven’t had a good draft class in years, and if Matthew Stafford remains motivated, this team could be very very good if this defense holds up. This could be a sneaky team with a fortunate at large schedule to back. I might take a little taste of the Rams to make the playoffs.
My Number: 9.7
Action – Strong Lean Over
LA Rams power rating: 2.5
3. Seattle Seahawks –
Vegas win total: 7.5 juiced to the over -120
2023 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 7.35
Schedule: Medium – At large vs Denver, vs NY Giants, @ Atlanta
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: Coach Pete Carrol, G Damien Lewis, LB Jordyn Brooks, TE Colby Parkinson, TE Will Dissly, RB DeeJay Dallas, ILB Bobby Wagner, QB Drew Lock, ILB Devin Bush, G Evan Brown, SS Jamal Adams, SS Quadre Diggs
Key additions: Coach Mike McDonald, S Rayshawn Jenkins, T George Fant, OLB Jerome Baker, LB Tyrel Dodson, TE Pharoah Brown
Key draft picks: DL Byron Murphy, G Christian Haynes and a bunch of prayers.
Summary: The Seahawks once again over-achieved last year getting the team to 9 wins. I give all the credit to coach Pete Carrol who continued to have nothing much to work with. Of course, he gets fired this year which is really what shocked me. Geno Smith proved better than I thought at quarterback, but still not good enough for a top tiered NFL team. The Pythag of 7.35 wins really says it all. Now the chickens of the sea bring in the Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator as the new head coach who ran a very aggressive blitz first type defense. I am not so sure about the hire myself, but I think that it might improve the Seahawks defense from ranking 30th in EPA to somewhere in the middle. I really like the draft pick of Byron Murphy who should be able to clog up that interior. What I do not like is that the Seahawks shed lot of dudes last year at linebacker and at offensive line. I think that it mike take some time for this new scheme to gel under Ryan Grubb. I do not understand that hire as he came from the Washington commanders as a OC and quarterback’s coach. Brutal. The Seahawks were 10th in offensive EPA last year and I expect that to drop off drastically. I also think that they may shed wide receiver Tyler Lockett in the the weeks to come. This could be a disaster of a first year if they do not start out hot. Having a -13 net rest in their schedule doesn’t help. The good news is that the Seahawks get to start off vs Denver and at New England. The Schedule gets much harder after that. I only see a maximum of 7 wins and I will take the under 7.5.
My number: 6.67
Action – Under 7.5 +100 or bettor
Seattle’s Power Rating: -3
4. Arizona Cardinals –
Vegas Win Total: 6.5 juiced to the over -150
2023 Wins: 4
Pythagorean Wins: 5.31
Schedule: Medium – at large vs vs Washington, vs LA Chargers, @ Carolina
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: WR Marquise Brown, DT Leki Fotu, CB Antonio Hamilton, T DJ Humphries, TE Geoff Swaim
Key additions: DT Justin Jones, T Jonah Williams, CB Sean Bunting, DE Bilal Nicholes, LB Mack Wilson, RB DeeJay Dallas, G Evan Brown,
Key Draft Picks: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Edge Darius Robinson, CB Max Melton, RB Trey Benson, OT Isaiah Adams, TE Tip Reiman, CB Elijah Jones and some dudes.
Summary: The Arizona Cardinals are quietly one of the most interesting teams out there for 2024. Rich Gannon starts his sophomore year finally with a quarterback. Well, we think so anyways. As bad as the Cardinals were last year, they fought through some serious adversity. Kyler Murray only played half the season, and by that time the team’s motivations were shot. The Cardinals had a lot of money to spend in the offseason capitalizing on some good trenches coming in for 2024. The birds also may have found their next Larry Fitzgerald in drafting my number 1 ranked player in Marvin Harrison Jr.. This should make any quarterback happy and it’s now up to Kyler to perform. Last year, Trey McBride was a huge success at tight end. I also like the fact that there is a defensive minded coach in Rich Gannon who should be able to put something together more average than their 31st ranking in EPA. My biggest issue with the Cardinals is that their schedule starts out brutal going to Buffalo, then home vs LA, Detroit and Washington. Calling that 1-3. Then they go to San Francisco, Green bay and then home vs the LA Chargers. Maybe 2-5 at best. I think we wait to bet their win total over after week six or seven.
My Number: 7.16
Action – Lean over
Arizona Cardinals Power Rating: -3.25
Best Bets: Rams to make playoffs +100 – 1 star (DK), & Seattle Seahawks under 7.5 wins +100 – 1 star (DK)
